The Civic Coalition (KO) has lost as much as 7 percentage points in support, according to an IBRiS poll for Onet. Currently, 30.5% of Poles would vote for Law and Justice (PiS), and 25.8% for KO. “Give Giertych a few more weeks to wreak havoc, and KO will drop below 20%,” quipped a well-known PSL MP in a sarcastic comment to Gazeta Polska. Alongside Giertych’s antics, KO is also suffering from the wear and tear of Tusk’s leadership, which has become particularly evident after his role in Rafał Trzaskowski’s defeat. Gazeta Polska asks: how much longer can the December 13 coalition survive?
Trzaskowski’s defeat caused chaos, not only for him
Trzaskowski’s loss derailed not only his plans but also caused turmoil among his entourage. “Many Warsaw city councillors already saw themselves working in the Presidential Palace. Councillor Sylwia Krajewska was convinced she’d be employed there. There was to be a political ‘airlift’ from the Civic Platform branch in Ursynów to the palace. Others were already preparing their own mayoral bids for Warsaw. Trzaskowski’s campaign chief, Wioletta Paprocka, was expected to be rewarded with a candidacy. Other names floated included Barbara Nowacka and Marcin Kierwiński. But it all fell apart—something many couldn’t believe. Trzaskowski’s circle lives in their own world,” said a source from a Warsaw foundation familiar with the political environment.
Tusk is burnt out—and it’s obvious to all
If Tusk once served as the binding force of the December 13 coalition, that bond has now significantly weakened. A PSL MP assessed: “Tusk undeniably contributed to Trzaskowski’s loss. For half a year, I’ve said that Trzaskowski would struggle against Karol Nawrocki because, in a time when the political tide is turning right, he represents a hard-left position. Many knew this—but for some reason, Tusk didn’t.”
Or perhaps he knew but did nothing. Either way, it’s a sign of his weakening grasp. It’s reminiscent of the Jacek Murański scandal—plenty of people saw that invoking his name was idiotic, but Tusk didn’t get it.
According to the PSL MP, people who’ve known Tusk for 30 years now believe he knows he’s lost and is already preparing his escape plan.
“Before the 2027 elections, he’ll likely flee once again to the EU. His appointment of Adam Szłapka as government spokesperson is evidence that he anticipates defeat. Sure, Szłapka isn’t fit for the role—but what of it? There may be another Ewa Kopacz-like maneuver, perhaps with Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. But I’d advise him against becoming PM just six months before an election—by then, everything will be lost. If Tusk wants him as PM, it has to happen now, not in 18 months.”
Another insider suggests that Szłapka’s appointment is meant to break up the faction he previously shared with Sławomir Nitras and Agnieszka Pomaska. For Tusk, this internal maneuvering took priority over improving the government’s public image. The source remarked:
“Tusk has aged—he’s 68. Jarosław Kaczyński is older, but his situation is different. He doesn’t have to deal daily with coalition partners. Tusk does—and it’s taking a toll on his psyche.”
According to our sources, Tusk’s political instincts are clearly fading—evident in his quiet encouragement of Giertych’s disruptive behavior, which is hugely damaging to KO.
Tusk’s special relationship with Giertych—revealed in leaked tapes aired by Telewizja Republika—could spell disaster for him, especially as his political energy dwindles. Even Piotr Śmiłowicz recently wrote in Tygodnik Powszechny that “Donald Tusk appears to be burnt out as a political leader of both the Civic Platform and the Civic Coalition.”
A PiS-PSL coalition? It’s already happening locally
Who is most likely to break away from the coalition? The PSL seems the likeliest candidate. It’s already begun at the local level. In Lublin and Puławy, the December 13 coalition has collapsed. In Lublin County, Piotr Sawicki of KO was dismissed as county council chairman—with votes from PiS and Third Way councillors. In Puławy, a PiS-PSL coalition has taken over the entire city council presidium.
In which regions is PSL closer to PiS? “PSL would favor cooperation with PiS in the Lublin region. Proponents can also be found in Małopolska, Mazowsze (outside Warsaw), and Podkarpacie. Władek (Kosiniak-Kamysz) must reckon with this. What does it matter if PSL in Greater Poland is against working with PiS, when the party’s presence in Lublin is incomparably stronger?” said a PSL politician.
It’s worth noting that Deputy PM Kosiniak-Kamysz firmly distanced himself from Giertych’s antics. He said:
“The election result is clear. The emotions being stirred up today do not serve the stability of the state or transparency of the electoral process. We must draw lessons for the future. I’m approaching this calmly. I see no grounds to annul the election.”
There is no shortage of Tusk-skeptical voices within PSL. “Civic Platform especially ostracized PSL politicians who had previously been in PO, treating them as traitors. These were the people who once formed PO’s right wing—but Tusk cast them out, and they ended up in PSL. Now they’d be happy to return the favor,” said another insider.
A PSL MP, however, tried to ease tensions:
“I think we can expect spot cooperation with PiS—just like when both parties backed Karol Nawrocki for IPN chief and Mariusz Wiącek for Ombudsman. Only now, such cooperation may become more frequent.”
Another source noted that younger PSL members—raised on fierce anti-PiS rhetoric during PiS’s time in power—are a different story: “I can’t imagine someone like Kuba Stefaniak doing a complete 180 and now defending an alliance with PiS.”
Czarzasty to replace Hołownia? Gawkowski to replace Czarzasty?
The coalition is also divided over the rotating Speaker of the Sejm agreement. Under the original December 13 pact, Szymon Hołownia was to be replaced by post-communist Włodzimierz Czarzasty on November 13. Yet politicians from Poland 2050 have repeatedly hinted this should not happen.
A new proposal has emerged: Hołownia would become Deputy Prime Minister, replacing Left party’s Krzysztof Gawkowski. Poland 2050 also wants to cut the Left’s number of ministers from four to two, arguing that their influence is disproportionate to their small parliamentary club. “Some on the Left fear Hołownia will strike a deal with PiS and Confederation to stay Speaker of the Sejm, breaking the coalition,” an insider claims.
Meanwhile, a power struggle is looming within the Left itself. In November, the party’s congress will see Gawkowski challenge Czarzasty. “Włodek expected Krzysiek not to run against him—but he miscalculated. Gawkowski has the backing of the ‘Family First’ faction,” said our source. “Family First” is a tongue-in-cheek label for the group led by Robert Biedroń and his partner Krzysztof Śmiszek.
Mucha dismissed
Tusk dismissed Joanna Mucha—Deputy Minister of Education from Poland 2050—after she openly criticized KO, saying: “Platform is so convinced of its own awesomeness, it doesn’t think it needs strategic analysis.” She also remarked that PO has been losing elections for years without taking any responsibility. “Prime Minister Donald Tusk asked for criticism to be kept behind closed doors. I’ve done that for years. But now it’s time to speak out,” she said.
After her dismissal, Mucha posted: “For many months, I worked intensely on projects I truly believed could change Polish education. Unfortunately, despite many efforts and talks, I failed to secure support from the Education Ministry and the government leadership. Under these circumstances, continuing in my position no longer made sense.” In contrast, Magdalena Filiks of PO earlier called Poland 2050 politicians “teflon-coated saboteurs.”
Who’s being indecent?
A sign of Tusk’s waning authority is the increasingly open criticism from his coalition partners. On the platform X, he posted the following appeal:
“The 15 October Coalition’s leaders face a serious test. I know—it’s hard to find legal and effective ways of acting in the constitutional chaos we inherited from PiS. If you don’t know how to behave, then at least behave decently. And don’t let yourselves be divided.”
Anna Maria Żukowska, head of the Left’s parliamentary club, responded:
“But it’s you who’s causing division—by insinuating that one of the leaders is being ‘indecent’ without saying who or what exactly you mean.”