“If the prime minister truly believes that Russia could attack a NATO member ‘within months,’ the appropriate response would not be yet another dramatic interview with the Financial Times. It would be the immediate reinstatement of universal conscription in Poland, a comprehensive mobilization of the state, and perhaps a flight to Washington for direct talks with President Trump,” argues Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, adviser to the President of Poland on European affairs.
“This is how statesmen act when they believe war is approaching. Instead, what we are getting is rhetoric calibrated not so much for a serious strategic discussion as for a DOMESTIC POLITICAL EFFECT: to frighten society, dramatize the moment, and present oneself as the lone guardian of national survival,” adds the former Vice-President of the European Parliament.
He also stresses that the likelihood of a Russian attack on a NATO member “within months” is close to zero. As long as Russia remains engaged in a full-scale war against Ukraine, it has neither the political nor the military freedom to open a second front against the Alliance.
“Russia is dangerous, brutal, and revisionist. But it is not omnipotent. Therefore, the real question is not whether Moscow is preparing to invade NATO next month. The real question is WHY the Polish prime minister has chosen to speak as if that were the case,” Saryusz-Wolski concludes.