“This government is needed by no one: not by the American administration, whose previous team helped create it and whose current one hates it; not by society, which would gladly choose another authority; and less and less by Brussels, which will soon have a dependent to maintain,” writes Tomasz Sakiewicz, editor-in-chief of TV Republika, in his column in the latest issue of Gazeta Polska.
There are still two years left until the scheduled parliamentary elections. The ruling coalition is on a downward slope, perhaps even in a tailspin from which it will be very difficult to escape. The mood is bad for the prime minister himself and for the entire government, and the only ministers who, according to polls, enjoy some popularity—like Radosław Sikorski—are those who want to step into the prime minister’s shoes. Defeat follows defeat, while PR tricks are working less and less effectively. Many cracks are already visible. The actions of radicals like Minister Waldemar Żurek can only hasten the collapse. Worse still, internal conflicts don’t help.
Does this mean early elections this year? I hardly believe it. Why? Because many MPs still have two years ahead of them, as do ministers and other officials at various levels. The feeding trough binds better than the famous “super glue.” Will nothing change over the next two years? On the contrary. The foolish ones will step on the gas pedal, thinking they can still reverse “bad luck.”
This is practically impossible now. This government is needed by no one: not by the American administration, whose previous team helped create it and whose current one hates it; not by society, which would gladly choose another authority; and less and less by Brussels, which will soon have a dependent on its hands. The open contempt shown toward Tusk by the German chancellor does not mean Berlin has abandoned him completely, but if someone with better prospects emerges, they will gladly take them.
We will be watching a process of decay during which individual state institutions will free themselves from Tusk’s influence. The remaining ones will become less and less effective. This may accelerate elections, but only when it becomes clear there is less to lose and more to gain. From a calculation of costs and benefits, it may turn out to be next year instead. Of course, there is also the strong international dynamic to which this government is particularly vulnerable, but even that has its own inertia.
Future elections will be possible once some elements of the ruling coalition find a “new opening,” for example, 20 MPs appearing on Law and Justice lists. I don’t know if this is realistic, but in a year everything may become feasible.
The state of public finances is tragic, and this too will not increase social support. The middle ranks of Civic Platform blame all their failures on TV Republika—and I am proud to say there is something to it. But today, even destroying Republika would change nothing. The social narrative has slipped out of control. Republika probably has a significant influence on what the future structure of the right-wing establishment will look like, but Tusk will finish himself off.
That does not change the fact, however, that if we want Poland to have no more Tusks, we must maintain strong right-wing media. This is truly an even harder task than before. We must fight, we must endure.