The hospital scandal has burst the information bubble. It is now being discussed not only by supporters of Law and Justice or Confederation, but also by representatives and supporters of the ruling camp. While the former may have the impression that the media are already saturated with reports about the scandal, the latter are only now finding out what happened and beginning to grasp the scale of the problem.
This is what usually happens in a society where the media system was almost completely sealed off for years. Scandals generally erupted only when those controlling the media system fell out with one another, as in the case of the Rywin affair. Today, the situation is somewhat different. Around 40 per cent of the media sphere is beyond the control of the current ruling camp. This includes not only TV Republika and the media outlets associated with the Free Speech Zone, but also other smaller television stations, online media, social media, and so forth. The balance is constantly shifting to the disadvantage of those in power, while the destruction of public media has only accelerated this process. It could therefore be said that public media actually served as an anchor restraining the growth of media outside the liberal-left-wing mainstream. Today, the rapid expansion of private media means that it is no longer possible to make most of society dependent on a single narrative, while keeping people confined within information bubbles is becoming increasingly difficult.
These bubbles are gradually becoming more permeable. It can reasonably be estimated that more than two-thirds of Poles have heard about the scandal and may have doubts about the conduct of the ruling elites in this matter. Why, then, does Civic Coalition still enjoy such strong support? First, that support is not actually so strong, as it fluctuates at around 30 per cent. Second, it has been falling in most opinion polls for several weeks. Third, support for the main governing party is the result of the deliberate cannibalisation of its smaller coalition partners. Creating a situation in which Donald Tusk alone decides who will become an MP has maintained, and for a little while longer will continue to maintain, discipline among Civic Coalition’s partners and its own members. There was nowhere else for them to go. The approaching elections will change that situation: there will no longer be any reason to stay.
The ruling camp, which is becoming increasingly unpopular with the public, may have no more than 200 parliamentary seats to offer selected candidates. This will not come without consequences, because remaining loyal to Tusk could cost the Polish People’s Party control over local governments, possibly for good. Once it loses that position, it will not regain it under the same banner. Tusk has nothing to offer Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz’s party, not even within the government, while any places offered to its members on parliamentary candidate lists would be largely fictitious. Without her MPs, however, he may lose his majority. The blanket will become increasingly too short, while successive scandals will prove ever more damaging. What is to be done?
Run away. He has done it once before. Except that fleeing abroad may prove difficult, because Berlin appears to have enough problems of its own without having to concern itself with a defeated politician.
He may therefore try to escape into an early election, but that would carry the risk of losing power as soon as this autumn. I have been writing about such a scenario for a long time. It is by no means implausible. Another possibility would be a major government reshuffle, although that would not be easy either. Instead of helping, it could destabilise the entire system.
Things are becoming genuinely intriguing. In my view, one way or another, this is a downward spiral.