This morning, U.S. forces launched strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. What implications might the current global situation hold for Poland? Former long-serving Member of the European Parliament, Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, outlines both the advantages and drawbacks of the operation.
Overnight, the United States conducted intensive air raids targeting strategic nuclear sites in Iran, significantly escalating tensions in the Middle East. President Donald Trump confirmed that the attacks were aimed at three key locations associated with Iran’s nuclear program: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
“We are not at war with Iran. We are at war with Iran’s nuclear program,” stated U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance a few hours after the strikes.
The developments have sparked widespread international reaction and raise a critical question: what does this mean in the context of Poland?
Saryusz-Wolski: There Are Pros and Cons
Commenting on the U.S. strikes, Jacek Saryusz-Wolski presented an analysis of the pros and cons of the current global developments as they relate to Poland.
“The U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear military targets is a fact beyond dispute. From the standpoint of Poland’s national security interests, there are both advantages and disadvantages to this action,” he wrote in a public statement.
Among the advantages, Saryusz-Wolski highlighted that the U.S. attack weakens Iran—a key ally of Russia—and therefore indirectly undermines Russia itself.
He further noted: “If Iran, weakened by the strike, refrains from escalating the situation, this may, in the longer term, pave the way for stability and peace in the region—without the threat of an Iranian nuclear arsenal—under the doctrine of ‘peace through strength.’”
He added that Iran’s nuclear weapons pose a potential threat to Poland and its allies, as its missile capabilities extend to Europe. This was, in fact, the original rationale behind deploying elements of the U.S. missile defense shield in Poland.
According to the former MEP, the strike also sends a clear message to Russia: President Trump, when diplomatic negotiations fail, is willing to resort to decisive military action. This enhances the perceived deterrence potential of the United States, Poland’s key ally.
Moreover, in his view, the U.S. action may disrupt Iranian arms and drone supplies to Russia in its war against Ukraine.
However, Saryusz-Wolski also pointed to several disadvantages.
Firstly, he warned that the strike increases short- and medium-term instability in an already volatile Middle East.
Secondly, he noted that if Iran responds by closing the Strait of Hormuz to oil and gas shipments from the region, it would disrupt energy supplies to Poland and the broader West—including China.
He continued: “Roughly 30% (some estimates suggest 20%) of global energy shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz. A disruption could drive up prices, potentially giving Russia increased revenue to fund its military and the war in Ukraine.”
Saryusz-Wolski concluded by noting a final downside: the possibility that the U.S. could reduce its engagement in Europe. “The NATO eastern flank and the Middle East are geographically proximate and interconnected theaters of military operations,” he warned.