The coalition government led by Donald Tusk does not enjoy public support. Does it have a chance of surviving 2026 in its current configuration? Poles answered this question in the latest survey conducted by United Surveys by IBRiS.
Politically speaking, 2025 was undoubtedly an intense year. First came the election campaign, followed by the presidential election. There was also a reshuffle of Donald Tusk’s government and a change in the post of Speaker of the Sejm of the Republic of Poland. In the meantime – there were many lower-profile events.
Will the Tusk-led coalition survive 2026?
In December last year, two years passed since the swearing-in of Donald Tusk’s cabinet. The government, as opinion polls show, does not enjoy public support. Despite this, will the coalition survive 2026 in an unchanged configuration? Poles were asked this question in a United Surveys by IBRiS poll conducted for Wirtualna Polska.
The survey shows that respondents are divided on this issue. 51.3 percent of those surveyed believe that the ruling team will last until the end of this year without changes – both personal and party-related. 13.4 percent are convinced of this, while 37.9 percent chose the answer “rather yes.”
32.1 percent of participants (including 10 percent who are firmly convinced) do not foresee a stable future for the ruling coalition.
However, a relatively high percentage of people disoriented by the political situation is noticeable – 16.6 percent of respondents were unable to assess whether the government would remain in its current configuration.
The future of the coalition in the eyes of voters
Most supporters of the parties forming the coalition believe that the government will remain in its current shape. This scenario is assumed by 86 percent of voters of the Civic Coalition, the Third Way, and the New Left. Pessimists in this group are few – only 9 percent allow for the possibility of changes in the composition of the government.
Among opposition supporters – Law and Justice (PiS) and the Confederation – doubts dominate. Nearly half of them (46 percent) believe that the coalition will not survive in its current form, although a significant share – 36 percent – thinks that Donald Tusk’s government will make it through the year without changes.
The most uncertain are voters outside the main political blocs. In this group, as many as 31 percent have no opinion on the government’s future. Among those who did express a view, there are more skeptics (39 percent) than optimists (30 percent).
The poll was conducted by United Surveys by IBRiS on behalf of Wirtualna Polska. The study was carried out on December 19-21, 2025, using a mixed method - CATI (telephone interviews) and CAWI (online surveys) - on a sample of N=1000 respondents.