back to top

    On how the attack on Poland was prepared

    The coincidence of the dates of the latest attack on our eastern border and the attempt to overthrow the government along with creating political instability are astounding. If both actions had been successful, Poland would be flooded by a crowd of immigrants, some of whom would have terrorized Poland. At the same time, the government would be completely paralyzed by the lack of a majority capable of governing. It would be impossible to hold new elections if it had been decided to impose a state of emergency. In turn, the calling of elections would not be possible due to states of emergency. Such a scenario was literally a hair’s breadth to come true. Its key element was Donald Tusk’s return to Polish politics. There is no doubt that the same powers, which quested for the immediate abolition of the government, did what they could to bring about the break in the border.

    You will realize that it is difficult to talk about completely separate events just by comparing a few facts.


    In late June, Donald Tusk announced his return to Polish politics. At the beginning of July, he takes over the PO (Civic Platform party – editor’s note) and at the same time announces a new Polish-Polish war, there is a radical sharpening of the political language. Jarosław Gowin, whose activities lead to the government temporarily losing its majority in the Sejm, makes an unexpected turn. There are projects for accelerated elections, changing the Marshal of the Sejm and even appointing a provisional Prime Minister. 


    At the beginning of July, the so-called “Floodgate” operation is revealed – the smuggling of thousands of immigrants through Belarus to destabilize neighbouring countries. At first, the strike goes to Lithuania, but soon its victim is Poland.


    Simultaneously, under the influence of the domestic opposition headed by Donald Tusk, Poland is again being publicly charged by the European Union. Its politicians are convinced that the independence of the courts, as well as freedom of speech, are under threat. The opposition media and groups hope to cause a rapid economic and political crisis by cutting off EU funds. 


    Meanwhile, Donald Tusk and many opposition politicians are launching a campaign against a tough defence of the border. 


    The course of events is tragic: destabilization of power, economic crisis, external attack from east and west.


    However, the plan failed. A few elements were misreckoned. First, the government has regained its majority. Kaczyński outplayed Gowin and Tusk. Second, there was no economic crisis. Poland has achieved a significant surplus over the budget plan. Since there was no need for elections, a state of emergency could be imposed in the border provinces. The government quickly regained control of the situation. The attacks from the EU fell on deaf ears because, after a few weeks, EU officials had to change their narrative in solidarity with the attacked Poland. Keeping the situation on the border under control disgraced the verbal attacks on the Polish army and officers. However, had it not been for the state of emergency, it would have been much more difficult.


    It can be argued that recent events are a complete coincidence of many cases. But imagine what would happen if the government lost its majority after all.


    Accumulation of events would just overwhelm us.


    The first stage of the operation failed. We’ll see if there’s a plan B.


    More in section