“Poland now is one of the most influential countries in Europe. It is taking the lead on Ukraine. It is taking the lead whether or not they follow,” George Friedman, U.S. geopolitical forecaster, and strategist on international affairs, founder and chairman of the Geopolitical Futures think-tank, said. He was a special guest at the 7th Edition of the 590 Congress.
“We see Poland changing from a country ten, 15 years ago that hid, that avoided it, always obeyed others to one who is taking the lead and taking control of the situation,” said George Friedman.
In his view, the danger of the war in Ukraine was that if the Russians won, it would be on the western border, and given that Russia is demanding the withdrawal of NATO from Eastern Europe when Ukraine falls, the Russians will go further.
“The most important thing to understand is that for the United States, Ukraine itself is important, but not that important. The important point is that if the Russians move further west into Poland, into any of these countries, then the United States will have to make very serious decisions. And we don’t want to make those decisions, but we will defend. But it’s hard to defend Ukraine. It’s easier to defend Poland,” he noted.
Friedman believes that it is necessary to come to terms with the war itself because there would be many wars and Poland must start choosing which wars to fight in, how to fight and how to defend itself.
He pointed out that although Poland has understood what responsibility is in geopolitical terms and has become a responsible country, we lack a coherent state policy.
“You’re buying weapons and you’re buying foreign weapons. You’re also producing weapons. So your army is being transformed in Poland. You have simultaneously economic growth. And developing your military. You’re not afraid. You’re afraid to be afraid,” he added.
According to Friedman, in the situation of a threat of war, the only protection is the system of alliances, concluded also to be able to build wealth and have an appropriate scale for action. In a situation related to the conflict in Ukraine, an alliance of the countries of the Inter-Mediterranean Region – the Baltic States, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, which, like Poland, border Russia or Ukraine – is natural.