The destruction of Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines – means that Germany goes to the wall. If they want to receive the gas minimum – which is some 27 billion cubic metres – they must cease the sanctions that cover NS2. They are rubbing their hands together in the Kremlin and this proves who cared most about the act of gas sabotage. It is also interesting to note the behaviour of prices in the oil market.
On Monday, the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines running from Russia to Germany were interrupted at three locations near the Danish Island of Bornholm. The Danish authorities conveyed that the cause was deliberate and that explosions had occurred near the pipelines.
The investigation into the causes of the pressure drop in both pipelines, Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, has already been conducted by, among others, German safety authorities at federal level.
Preliminary findings indicate that due to the timing of the incidents, which affected a total of three pipelines, and additionally the severe pressure loss in Nord Stream 1, which indicates an equally large leak as in Nord Stream 2, as the German media wrote, “the worst is expected”.
The latest information suggests that a specially trained group from Russia’s GRU intelligence service may have been behind the act of sabotage. It is on Putin’s special services that most suspicion falls. Why exactly would the Russians have carried out such an act? The explanation lies in the Russia-Germany gas supply. Our western neighbours have become dependent on Russian raw materials and are now suffering the consequences.
In February, just after the Russian aggression against Ukraine, Germany decided to suspend the certification process of Nord Stream 2 until further notice. However, it is highly likely that after the destruction of three Nord Stream lines – including as many as two Nord Stream 1 lines – they will decide to lift sanctions on the NS2 pipeline. All because otherwise there is no chance that they would get the absolute minimum gas needed for the country, which is about 27 billion cubic metres per year.
Olaf Scholz was already under strong pressure from other politicians who indicated that sanctions on Russia should be lifted because the German public must not suffer because of this (lack of gas). In the current situation, the pressure may intensify, which could push the German authorities to soften their stance. If this happens, it is Russia that will benefit most. This would at the same time make it clear whose side Germany is on and explain why it was the Russians who were most keen to destroy Nord Stream.
There is another puzzling coincidence: within a day of the explosion in Nord Stream’s pipelines, Russia’s other key export commodity – i.e., crude oil – had risen by as much as 4 per cent on world markets, although it had previously been rapidly getting cheaper.