The European Commission’s spring economic forecast indicates a slight improvement over February’s projections. EU GDP growth for 2024 is revised to 1% (up from 0.9%), with the eurozone steady at 0.8%. The Commission foresees a 1.6% GDP rise in 2025 for the EU and 1.4% for the eurozone. Inflation is expected to decrease, driven by recovering purchasing power and employment growth.
Poland’s Economic Rebound
Poland’s GDP growth forecast for 2024 has been raised to 2.8% (up from 2.7%), and to 3.4% in 2025 (from 3.2%). After a sharp slowdown in 2023, strong private and public consumption is expected to drive this rebound. The Polish economy is supported by rising wages, government social support, and improved consumer sentiment.
The EU’s inflation rate is predicted to drop from 6.4% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025. In the eurozone, it will decrease from 5.4% in 2023 to 2.5% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. Poland’s public debt is expected to rise from 49.6% of GDP in 2023 to 53.7% in 2024 and 57.7% in 2025, due to high deficits and defense investments.
Labor Market Resilience
Despite geopolitical uncertainties, the EU labor market remains resilient, creating over two million jobs in 2023. The employment rate for those aged 20-64 hit 75.5%, with EU unemployment at a record low of 6% in March 2024. In Poland, rapid wage growth is expected to continue, boosted by a 20% minimum wage increase and substantial public sector pay rises.