The global cocoa market has reached a critical point, with prices soaring to nearly $7,800 per ton on Friday due to severe flooding in West Africa. Torrential rains have disrupted cocoa harvesting in key producing countries like Ivory Coast and Ghana, delaying crop collection and tightening supplies.
In the U.S., cocoa stocks monitored by ICE, a financial and commodity exchange firm, dropped to their lowest level in 15 years, falling below 2 million bags by Tuesday and continuing to decline throughout the week.
Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer, is particularly hard-hit. The government reported that farmers shipped just 12,960 tons of cocoa in the first six days of October, a significant drop from the 50,138 tons during the same period last year. Ghana, the second-largest producer, is also facing a difficult season, with forecasts predicting a harvest of just 650,000 tons, the lowest in 13 years.
These challenges have affected neighboring Liberia as well. Although a small player in the global cocoa market, Liberia has recently started producing its own chocolate. However, heavy rains have hampered efforts to properly dry cocoa beans, and smuggling to neighboring countries remains a significant issue.
Deforestation is another concern across West Africa. Ivory Coast has lost 90% of its forests in the last 60 years, while Liberia has seen 15% of its rainforests cleared for cocoa production over the past two decades.
Experts predict that global cocoa supplies will hit a 46-year low this season, which, combined with rising sugar prices due to droughts in Brazil, means consumers can expect higher chocolate prices in the near future.