The United States is currently the only real guarantor of Poland’s security. This is not only about Russia’s still significant advantage in conventional weapons, but above all about the American nuclear umbrella.
Ukraine made an extraordinary military effort, halting the assault on Kyiv and, for more than three years, fighting one of the largest armies in the world on equal terms. But the price has been enormous, the destruction of the economy, depopulation of the country, and hundreds of thousands of victims.
Ukraine paid the price for lacking real alliances and relying on paper guarantees. Poland may find itself in a similar situation if there are no significant American forces stationed along the Vistula, as well as a strong sphere of American interests. Both of these require a close alliance and a network of economic, social, and political ties.
This cannot be achieved with a single meeting, however successful, lasting just a few hours. Karol Nawrocki’s visit across the ocean is an attempt to maintain something that has already been largely built, but which was first undermined by the former U.S. president, who toppled a pro-American government in Poland, and is now being damaged by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who supports German policy. Much depends on this visit and its circumstances.