“After this split, Tusk will no longer be able to base his polarizing political narrative solely on anti-PiS sentiment, because PiS will become just one of four players on the right. The question is whether Tusk will be able to adapt his political strategy to this new reality. For many years, he has built his political career on this strategy of polarization,” political scientist Dr. Andrzej Anusz of the Józef Piłsudski Institute told Niezależna.pl, commenting on the split within Law and Justice (PiS). In his view, despite the turmoil on the right, the opposition still has a chance to remove Donald Tusk from power.
A new political landscape
After refusing to sign the so-called loyalty declarations to Law and Justice, more than 30 MPs effectively left the party, PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński announced on Friday. The party’s governing bodies are expected to formally confirm the decision on Tuesday.
The group gathered around former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki consists of 38 MPs (including one suspended PiS member), one senator, and three Members of the European Parliament.
Speaking to Niezależna.pl, Dr. Anusz said that, given the already fragmented state of Poland’s right-wing political scene, “we are now facing a new situation.”
“We have two Confederation parties that are polling above the electoral threshold, often at around 10 or even 12 percent. This is no longer the situation we had several years ago, when Law and Justice was the undisputed hegemon on the right. Today, there are several significant players on that side of the political spectrum,” he said.
He stressed that “it is now important to look at the future realistically.”
“Kaczyński presented the situation very calmly because he understands the need to cooperate with Mateusz Morawiecki’s political camp in order to build a parliamentary majority with Confederation—and perhaps also Grzegorz Braun’s grouping—to form a new government. I believe Kaczyński has this in mind, and Morawiecki is also trying to cool emotions. The real problem lies among their respective supporters, where unnecessary personal attacks are escalating tensions,” Anusz argued.
President as a unifying figure
Discussing future cooperation between the two camps, the political scientist said that both Jarosław Kaczyński and Mateusz Morawiecki should calm voices within their political circles that could deepen the internal conflict.
“In my opinion, this entire situation further strengthens the position of President Karol Nawrocki. His standing is already very strong, but with the right becoming more fragmented, it could grow even further. These four political groups will naturally look toward the president, because their voters supported Karol Nawrocki in the presidential election. At the same time, the president enjoys record levels of public trust. It is therefore very important not to draw him into internal disputes, but rather to allow him to play the role of a unifying patron of the broader right,” he said.
Anusz also pointed to declarations from opposition leaders expressing willingness to establish a joint Senate electoral pact under President Nawrocki’s patronage.
“That would be a very good test of whether these political forces are capable of working together. If such a pact is created, it would send a clear signal to voters that post-election cooperation is possible. It would strengthen voter motivation and demonstrate that the opposition has a realistic chance of forming the next government,” he added.
The end of the political duopoly
According to Dr. Anusz, the split within PiS marks “the end of the political duopoly” that has dominated Polish politics for years.
“From that perspective, Donald Tusk now has a problem. Opinion polls have consistently shown that while his coalition remains the largest political force, it would not be able to form a government. In practical terms, that means it would lose power if elections were held today,” he argued.
“After this split, Tusk will no longer be able to build his political narrative exclusively around anti-PiS rhetoric, because PiS will now be just one of four political players. The real question is whether he can adjust his political strategy. He has spent many years strengthening this polarizing approach and building his political career around it. This presents a fascinating challenge for him,” Anusz said.
He emphasized that although the political situation has become increasingly dynamic with more than a year remaining until the parliamentary election, “the opposition still has a chance to remove Donald Tusk from power.”
“There will be less polarization because the political duopoly is ending, and a period of coalition-building is beginning. There are now more political actors on both the opposition and government sides, meaning broader alliances will require more negotiation and compromise,” he said.
Morawiecki’s “Third Way”
Dr. Anusz did not rule out that Mateusz Morawiecki’s future political movement could play a role similar to that of Third Way during the 2023 parliamentary campaign, attracting voters dissatisfied with both PiS and Civic Platform.
“Morawiecki has certain opportunities in this respect. He says he wants to attract new groups of voters, including people who have never supported PiS. If he presents an ambitious economic and social development program, he may win over what I would call ‘wallet voters’—people who judge governments based on their own financial situation,” he said.
“If those voters conclude that life was better under Morawiecki than under Tusk, they may develop a certain nostalgia for Morawiecki’s leadership. Even people who voted for Tusk hoping for change but now feel disappointed could support Morawiecki’s future political project. These also include former supporters of Szymon Hołownia’s movement, which currently has virtually no support in the polls,” the political scientist added.
Anusz pointed to polling data indicating that some former Third Way voters have already shifted to Confederation after becoming disillusioned with Hołownia.
“If Morawiecki proposes attractive policies for entrepreneurs, some of those voters could move to his camp as well. He therefore has a genuine opportunity to attract voters who, in one way or another, helped Donald Tusk become prime minister—including some who currently do not vote at all,” he argued.
“With more than a year until the election, many interesting developments are still ahead. I believe Morawiecki’s strategy will be to attract at least some voters who currently do not support PiS, whether they come from Confederation, Poland 2050, or the Polish People’s Party. Of all the right-wing opposition forces, Morawiecki has the greatest potential to achieve this, and I expect he will try,” Dr. Andrzej Anusz concluded.