From Friday to Sunday, the Border Guard recorded more than 680 attempts to enter Poland illegally from Belarusian territory, with 14 people managing to flee. “We should expect the hybrid war on the border to escalate further. What is shocking is that the Polish government is not focusing on bolstering our security. All we see is propaganda of success, while in reality defence contracts are not being fulfilled and the Eastern Shield remains nothing but a vision,” Stanisław Żaryn, adviser to the President of Poland and president of the National Security Institute Foundation, told the portal Niezależna.pl.
Another uneasy weekend has passed on the Polish-Belarusian frontier. Polish services detained three people for assisting in the smuggling of illegal migrants, and once again stones were hurled at border officers. For comparison, the previous weekend (30 May–1 June) saw over 410 illegal crossing attempts.
Responding to questions from Niezależna.pl, Border Guard spokesman Lt. Col. Andrzej Juźwiak notes that migratory pressure on this border section has been uninterrupted since 2021.
“The number of foreigners trying to cross varies from day to day. For example, on 20 May almost 300 incidents were recorded, with proceedings initiated against nine people. On 5 June there were nearly 180 attempts, and proceedings are underway against four individuals,”
the spokesman points out.
Groups of up to 50 foreigners attempt to breach the border at once. Those who succeed are later apprehended either in the border zone or deeper inside the country, he adds.
Border Guard data also indicate that the effectiveness of Poland’s barriers and officer actions currently stands at about 98 percent.
Niezależna.pl asked Stanisław Żaryn for comment on these developments.
“The intensity of the hybrid war on the Belarus border will depend on the aims of Moscow and Minsk, which are orchestrating the entire operation. This is a cynical, brutal, multi-dimensional game against Poland and part of a broader plan to destabilize Central and Eastern Europe,”
the expert says.
“Unfortunately, I expect the hybrid war to escalate further. Our neighbour still hosts many people who can be used to destabilize the shared border,” he continues, adding that “the barrier built on the border—the very one criticized and sabotaged by today’s rulers—has prevented a much worse situation.”
In Żaryn’s view, security is not a priority for Donald Tusk’s government.
“The Eastern Shield project magnifies the paranoia we live in. On one hand, the government claims it is doing everything to strengthen Poland’s security; on the other, a closer look reveals nothing but the propaganda of success. Eastern Shield is the prime example—still just a propagandistic concept with no tangible progress. The same goes for contracts to modernize Poland’s armed forces; agreements are being revised or suspended, as we recently saw with helicopter purchases,”
he says.
“It is clear that security is not high on Donald Tusk’s agenda. No effective policy is being pursued. That is shocking given the current geopolitical situation in our part of Europe,”
he concludes.