Following the funeral of Pope Francis, cardinals will resume congregations in the Vatican on Monday to prepare for the conclave. The key task now is to set the date for its start, with unofficial reports suggesting May 5 or 6.
The election of a pope is one of the most spectacular events in the modern world, thanks to the historic setting of the Sistine Chapel and the centuries-old, unchanging rituals. Shrouded in secrecy, the conclave captures the world’s imagination and sparks intense speculation well beyond the Catholic Church.
What stirs the most emotion is the complete unpredictability of the outcome. No polls or media speculation about the so-called papabili—the presumed frontrunners—have ever reliably predicted the result. Often, such speculation reflects the hopes of certain church groups or the media rather than reality.
The length of the conclave is equally uncertain, although no conclave in the past 100 years has lasted more than five days. Italian media, recalling the 13th-century election in Viterbo—legend says it lasted over 1,000 days—joke that at least every modern conclave is shorter.
There’s enormous media interest in forecasting likely candidates, with even bookmakers offering odds. Yet the process remains a spectacle of secrecy and surprise, culminating when a new pope appears on the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica.
Such surprise marked the elections of 1978, when Cardinal Karol Wojtyła was chosen, and 2013, with the unexpected election of Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio. The Italian Bishops’ Conference had even mistakenly congratulated Cardinal Angelo Scola before the actual result was announced.
In today’s hyperconnected world, where cameras and smartphones are everywhere, some media treat the conclave almost like a show, although the ritual itself remains unchanged. The outside world is officially shut out when the Sistine Chapel doors close—a practice dating back to the late 13th century, when Pope Gregory X decreed that only cardinals could vote for the pope.
According to current rules, only cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible. The conclave must begin between the 15th and 20th day after the pope’s death. The general congregations, known as the pre-conclave, discuss the Church’s challenges and help sketch a profile for the new pope.
Cardinals—around 134 eligible to vote this time—meet daily, offering reflections and priorities, while getting to know one another, especially those from distant corners of the world.
Secrecy is paramount. Once the conclave begins, electors move into the Domus Sanctae Marthae, the Vatican guesthouse where Pope Francis lived for 12 years. This will be the third conclave to use this residence, following the elections of 2005 and 2013.
Under the Apostolic Constitution Universi Dominici Gregis, all areas connected to the conclave—including the Sistine Chapel—must be secured against outside access. Electors are forbidden from communicating with the outside world, except in emergencies approved by the special congregation overseeing the process.
Technical experts thoroughly sweep the Sistine Chapel to ensure there are no hidden recording devices.
The conclave opens with the Mass Pro eligendo Papa. The electors then process into the Sistine Chapel, singing Veni Creator Spiritus, invoking the Holy Spirit’s guidance. There, each cardinal swears an oath of secrecy and commitment to the Church’s service.
Afterward, the Master of Ceremonies commands “Extra omnes,” ordering everyone but the electors to leave. A final meditation is given before voting begins.
Electors remain sequestered until a pope is chosen, although they can rest and eat at the Domus Sanctae Marthae and stroll within secured areas of the Vatican Gardens. However, they may not access media or communicate externally.
Two-thirds of the votes are needed to elect a pope. Ballots are simple, inscribed with “Eligo in Summum Pontificem” (“I elect as Supreme Pontiff”) and the candidate’s name.
After each inconclusive vote, ballots are burned with chemicals that produce black smoke. Once a pope is elected, the smoke turns white, signaling to the world that a new leader has been chosen, accompanied by the ringing of bells.
Shortly afterward, a cardinal deacon will announce “Habemus Papam”, revealing the new pope’s name and the papal name he has chosen. The new pope will then appear to greet the faithful.
This conclave is expected to make history with the largest number of electors.
Many expect a relatively short election. Commentators speculate about “political” maneuverings between progressive and conservative factions, and whether the Church will choose a figure of continuity or one who will chart a new course after Francis’ transformative pontificate.
Some voices suggest the Church may seek a centrist figure to bridge the growing divides.