Recent data from the National Bank of Poland (NBP) has shown a significant drop in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, reaching levels comparable to the lows seen during the pandemic. Analysts at PKO BP, commenting on the report, highlighted this decline, pointing out a notable decrease in reinvested profits as well.
The NBP’s release on Wednesday revealed that Poland’s current account deficit reached 6.1 billion PLN (1.43 billion EUR) in September 2024. While exports and imports expressed in euro saw year-over-year growth, a nearly 5% appreciation of the Polish złoty meant that both volumes fell when calculated in domestic currency. According to PKO BP economists, the export decline was seen across all six main categories, with the largest drops in investment goods, transport equipment, and supplies. Notably, sales of electric batteries and passenger cars plummeted, reflecting continued economic challenges from stagnation in Germany and difficulties within the automotive sector.
On the import side, consumer goods—especially durable items—continued to rise, though this contrasts with weak September retail sales data. Export of services, meanwhile, returned to growth with a 1.3% increase year-over-year, though this lagged behind the 6.2% growth in imported services.
PKO BP economists suggest that further deterioration in the current account balance is likely, driven by ongoing trends in trade. This could be amplified by growth in energy and defense investments that heavily rely on imports. While no financing issues are anticipated, the declining FDI is raising concerns about Poland’s long-term economic stability.