Germany’s border controls could lead to trade disruptions and raise the risk of recession in neighboring countries.
The reintroduction of border controls in Germany could lead to significant transport delays, adding approximately 20 minutes to the usual border crossing times in the Schengen zone. This delay, caused by security checks and traffic congestion, will likely increase transport costs, leading to a projected 9.1% drop in Germany’s imported goods and a 7.8% decrease in demand for services. These added pressures threaten an already fragile economy, raising the risk of recession.
Impact on Neighboring Economies
Neighboring countries, tightly linked to Germany’s supply chains, will also feel the effects. According to Allianz Trade, Poland may see its exports to Germany shrink by €100 million, while Dutch and French imports could fall by €200 million and €92.4 million, respectively. Increased costs will hit industries relying on cross-border trade, with sectors such as tourism and logistics facing the hardest consequences.
Germany’s status as a transit hub and its overall economic stability are now under threat, as these disruptions push businesses and consumers to bear higher costs.