Voting in the first round of the presidential election concluded at 9:00 PM. Immediately thereafter, TV Republika presented the results of an exit poll conducted for the station by the polling agency OGB. These results reveal the extent to which support for Karol Nawrocki and Sławomir Mentzen had been underestimated in pre-election polling during the final days of the campaign.
According to the exit poll conducted for TV Republika, Rafał Trzaskowski emerged as the winner of the first round of the presidential election. He was closely followed by Karol Nawrocki, with Sławomir Mentzen taking third place. The figures reported by OGB were similar to those released by Ipsos:
- Rafał Trzaskowski – 31.6% (Ipsos: 30.8%)
- Karol Nawrocki – 29.8% (Ipsos: 29.1%)
- Sławomir Mentzen – 14.0% (Ipsos: 15.4%)
The exit poll results highlight the recent underestimation of right-wing candidates in opinion surveys.
For instance, a poll by IBRiS conducted for Polityka showed a nearly 13-point lead between the leading candidates:
- Rafał Trzaskowski – 36%
- Karol Nawrocki – 23.1%
- Sławomir Mentzen – 12.6%
Likewise, results from the same agency for Rzeczpospolita deviated significantly from the exit poll:
- Rafał Trzaskowski – 34.5%
- Karol Nawrocki – 26.9%
- Sławomir Mentzen – 12.0%
Considerable variation was also evident in a survey by United Surveys for Wirtualna Polska:
- Rafał Trzaskowski – 31.5%
- Karol Nawrocki – 26.6%
- Sławomir Mentzen – 11.7%
The Opinia24 polling firm also failed to produce accurate predictions, particularly in its survey for RMF FM:
- Rafał Trzaskowski – 29.7%
- Karol Nawrocki – 25%
- Sławomir Mentzen – 10.5%
All the aforementioned polls were conducted in May, some just a few days prior to the election.