If parliamentary elections were held this coming Sunday, the Civic Coalition (KO) would receive the most votes. But would that mean a second term for the government led by Donald Tusk? No — because the ruling camp would consist solely of KO and… the Left. The prospect of Tusk’s bloc losing power in two years is becoming increasingly clear.
For several months now, every new survey of political preferences among Poles has shown the same picture: Donald Tusk’s junior coalition partners would not make it into the Sejm today. This, in turn, would translate into the number of seats — which the current governing team simply would not have enough of.
The latest poll by United Surveys, conducted for “Wirtualna Polska,” confirms the trend.
KO and the Left Wouldn’t Be Enough
But first — turnout. According to the poll, if parliamentary elections were held this Sunday, 63.7% of respondents would take part. Meanwhile, 30.4% say they do not intend to vote.
The Civic Coalition would receive the highest support, with 30.9% of respondents choosing the party. Support for Tusk’s grouping remains nearly unchanged, showing only a minimal increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to late October.
In second place is Law and Justice (PiS), chosen by 26.4% of those surveyed. Jarosław Kaczyński’s party saw a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points.
Third place goes to Confederation, which would be supported by 15.6% of respondents. The party recorded a very significant surge in popularity — as much as 3.7 percentage points compared to the survey from late October.
Crossing the electoral threshold would also be:
- The Left – 7.9% (up 1 point)
- Confederation of the Polish Crown – 6.4% (almost unchanged from last month)
Meanwhile, the following would not enter the Sejm:
- Razem – 3.1%
- Polish People’s Party (PSL) – 3%
- Poland 2050 – 1.5%
Another 5.2% of respondents were unable to indicate which party they would vote for.
Seat Distribution
“Wirtualna Polska” also published how the seats would be distributed under such voting results:
- Civic Coalition – 179 seats
- Law and Justice – 150 seats
- Confederation – 80 seats
- The Left – 30 seats
- Confederation of the Polish Crown – 21 seats
It is therefore clear that with such a distribution, the Civic Coalition and the Left would not be able to retain power. Together they would have 209 seats, while 231 are needed for a majority.
But… a new government could theoretically be formed by a broad right-wing alliance — from Jarosław Kaczyński’s party, through Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak, to Grzegorz Braun. But is that really a plausible scenario?