Karol Nawrocki won not only among voters aged 18–29 but also among those in their 30s. It’s a political phenomenon: Donald Tusk’s government managed to alienate young people in record time — the same youth who just a year and a half ago helped topple the PiS government. The events of this campaign — police hunting down “Zorro” and “Batman,” media censorship, Rafał Trzaskowski’s security team slamming 21-year-old leftist activist Patryk Szynkowski to the ground, or the expulsion of 17-year-old Szymon Szymański from a rally for being part of a right-wing YouTube channel — have solidified, in the minds of young Poles, the image of the current government as outdated and ridiculous. That’s the assessment of Gazeta Polska deputy editor-in-chief Piotr Lisiewicz, writing in this week’s issue.
Images from Jagodno in 2023 were once sold as a youth uprising. Yet turnout among young people then was under 69%, while this time, in the first round of presidential voting, it soared to 72.8%.
“Polska Gurom”: Patriotism Goes Viral
The political tides among youth have been shifting for months — most visibly on TikTok. A short satirical clip with the slogan Polska gurom (“Poland rules!”), a Mariusz Pudzianowski catchphrase with the Tatra Mountains in the background, became the most commented video on TikTok globally at one point. In response to Minister Nowacka’s push to remove history classes, a wave of patriotism swept through students — a trend missed by many commentators. A viral remix of an American rap track with Polish patriotic visuals — featuring Anita Włodarczyk, Robert Lewandowski, Pope John Paul II, and President Andrzej Duda — was widely shared. Ironically, even Wisława Szymborska appeared in the video, highlighting its spontaneous and apolitical origins.
This online energy bled into electoral politics. Some were shocked to see a heavily made-up girl, using the nickname waleczna_patrycja99, usually labeled a “Julka,” fervently warning: “All these Julkas will vote and sell us out for legal abortion, get it?” Meanwhile, on Tomek Golonka’s channel, a young lesbian self-identified as “LGBT” urged votes for Nawrocki, arguing the homeland was more important than ideological divides.
“Wyborcza’s” Regret: Youth Mobilization Backfired
After round one, Gazeta Wyborcza lamented: “So what have you done, encouraging young people to vote? They showed up — and voted for Mentzen.” The student group Akcja Uczniowska, behind the pro-turnout campaign “Let’s Vote, Youth,” became an accidental ally of the right. Their campaign, once a tool against PiS, ended up undermining their own political allies.
Mentzen garnered a staggering 34.8% among youth in round one — nearly double Adrian Zandberg’s 18.7%. It’s not a new phenomenon: young voters often favor anti-establishment figures, from Korwin-Mikke to Kukiz and Palikot. Commentators noted lower support for PiS and PO among youth as a sign of “duopoly erosion” — a term Lisiewicz rejects, equating PO with the old regime and PiS with patriotic reform.
The Fall of “Women’s Strike” Influence
Two significant data points emerged: First, the right-wing Mentzen clearly outpaced the left-wing Zandberg. Second, young leftist voters preferred Zandberg over Magdalena Biejat — 18.7% to 5.3%. Biejat’s emphasis on abortion and LGBT rights didn’t resonate. This signals the end of the radical “Women’s Strike” movement’s influence on youth.
An unexpected sign of shifting winds came with a rise in priestly vocations — notably in secular Poznań — dubbed the “Fr. Olszewski Effect.” Most seminary applicants are high school graduates.
Meanwhile, left-leaning youth rejected the Tusk-aligned, post-communist left — people like Włodzimierz Czarzasty — opting instead for a more grassroots, social-democratic left untainted by communist-era baggage. Whether or not these voters care about the past, the effect is clear: the democratic left is rising at the expense of the oligarchic one — a shift that could reshape future alliances.
Sociologist Sławomir Sierakowski bemoaned on TVP that 16% of Zandberg voters supported Nawrocki. But the Trzaskowski campaign arguably brought that on — by targeting activists like Szynkowski and waging battles against tenants during the campaign.
The Great Polling Deception
That young voters supported Nawrocki in the runoff is the most politically consequential takeaway. It proves Mentzen voters have clear political beliefs — and they’re not dumb, as the Trzaskowski camp suggested.
Consider the polling farce: just four days before the runoff, Opinia24 showed 83% of Mentzen voters backing Nawrocki and only 13% choosing Trzaskowski. Meanwhile, Wirtualna Polska published a United Surveys poll claiming just 44% of Mentzen’s base would support Nawrocki, with 35% opting for Trzaskowski.
Pollsters may cite “methodological differences,” but a 39-point discrepancy is not methodology — it’s manipulation. Wirtualna Polska even quoted political scientist Dr. Renata Mieńkowska-Norkiene, who bizarrely claimed that a beer with Trzaskowski swayed the youth. This insulted Mentzen voters, portraying them as idiots who’d switch allegiances over a staged photo-op.
Meanwhile, high-profile Confederation leaders like Krzysztof Bosak, Przemysław Wipler, and even Janusz Korwin-Mikke endorsed Nawrocki — yet the media expected Mentzen’s base to ignore all that for a beer with Sikorski and Trzaskowski?
Mentzen = Kukiz 2.0?
Nawrocki’s success among youth mirrors the 2015 election, when Andrzej Duda captured the support of Paweł Kukiz’s base and defeated Komorowski. Kukiz had 20.8%, just like Mentzen today. His fans were anti-establishment and anti-PO — and Duda’s energy helped him prevail.
Mentzen’s voters today are slightly less socially conservative — 72% are religious, but only 26% practice weekly, and 28% are non-practicing. Nawrocki appealed to their common-sense conservatism more than to piety.
So Fast, So Early
What’s most astonishing: it took just 18 months for the Tusk government to become the enemy of youth. PiS never faced such youth rebellion from 2015 to 2020. Only after five years did the “Women’s Strike” emerge. Even in Tusk’s earlier term, mass youth protests didn’t erupt until 2011 (football fans) and 2012 (ACTA).
Now, just a year and a half in, the backlash is already raging — thanks in part to slogans like “The Red Crow Won’t Defeat the White Eagle” or “Don’t Fear Tusk,” which captured youth imagination.
Farmers’ protests, led in part by young people well-versed in social media, have also been underestimated. The arrest of Dariusz Matecki, a social media powerhouse, only fueled the fire. And Telewizja Republika has surged among younger viewers, unlike TVP Info during PiS rule.
Even Kanał Zero by Krzysztof Stanowski played a role. Though critical of all sides, his sharpest barbs hit Trzaskowski — the candidate youth viewed as the fakest of all.
One thing is certain: the era of conservatives lamenting “lost youth” is over.