This decision by one of Tusk’s officials will become a pretext for bus searches en route to Warsaw, personal checks, detentions, and charges against participants of the Independence March — as well as for an attack on President Karol Nawrocki and an attempt to break the unity of the demonstrators.
The “bomb” planted by Donald Tusk under the Independence March is, at first glance, a minor but completely unlawful decision by Mazovian Voivode Mariusz Frankowski — a “ban on moving around with pyrotechnic products” within Warsaw.
Anyone who remembers the current prime minister’s previous provocations knows that this decision reeks of Tusk from a mile away — writes Piotr Lisiewicz for Niezalezna.pl.
According to my information, the concept of the provocation devised by Tusk’s security services is to unfold as follows:
1) Revenge on Football Fans for “Donald, You Moron” in Kaunas
The key element will be convincing ordinary Poles that flares are something dangerous — which is, of course, absurd. That’s why the organizers of the Independence March rightly demonstrated during a press conference, after the voivode’s ban, how a flare works: it emits light and smoke, and is often used by avant-garde street theaters.
There is no Independence March without flares — they are essential to its atmosphere. Nor is there one without football fans. It was they who, years ago, gave the March its rebellious character and made it a generational phenomenon. Fans are also Tusk’s favorite targets for provocations. Recently, he glared menacingly when hearing the chant “Donald matole!” (“Donald, you moron!”) during a match in Kaunas. That was a clear sign that a provocation would come at the next convenient opportunity.
2) Roundups and Provocations
There will be flares at the march — they are an indispensable part of such events, and Tusk knows it well. Hence the aforementioned decision by Voivode Frankowski, the “face” of this provocation. Flares are lit at weddings and at the funerals of football fans, and during patriotic ceremonies they symbolize remembrance of heroes. Thirteen-year-old disabled Lechia Gdańsk fan Dawid Zapisek said before his death:
“To live, I need the smoke of flares, the chanting, the voices of thousands of throats in the stands.” He asked that flares be lit at his funeral — and they were.
It is difficult to attack a crowd holding thousands of flares, as was the case during previous Marches. Therefore, the plan now involves — in a move well known from German political culture — roundups of fans before the march, bus searches, and similar actions.
Perhaps there will even be mass surveillance of parcel lockers, allegedly in search of flares? This is meant to inflame emotions among fans and provoke anti-police sentiment.
3) The Media Will Play Their Role in the Provocation
Those emotions will then be used by Tusk to trigger a clash with the police during the march — a clash that will traditionally be started by plainclothes officers posing as fans, along with other provocateurs (like the undercover policeman who threw a paving stone during a farmers’ protest).
“Coincidentally,” cameras from TVN and the illegal TVP will be present right at the scene. “Coincidentally,” Grzegorz Braun will appear there with a banner about “Ukropolin,” and obligatory slogans about “Ukrainians” and “Jews” will be shouted.
At the same time, the media will recall Braun’s idiotic remarks denying the existence of gas chambers in Auschwitz — remarks that contradicted the findings of Captain Witold Pilecki.
4) Attack on the Football Fan — President Karol Nawrocki
This will serve as a pretext for attacks on President Karol Nawrocki, who is a Lechia Gdańsk supporter.
The roles are already scripted.
TVP and TVN will show close-ups of “Nawrocki’s football hooligans.”
Tusk will post a sarcastic comment on X, showing himself — “the greatest Polish patriot” — smiling as he celebrates Independence Day with children and people of culture, while “Nawrocki, Kaczyński, and Mentzen” are allegedly celebrating with “aggressive fascists.” Dorota Wysocka-Schnepf will interview actor Michał Żebrowski on the topic, while German and French newspapers will publish pieces about the “resurgence of fascism in Poland” and the need to suppress it by imposing hate-speech laws on Poles.
5) Divide the Demonstrators’ Unity
Another key objective of the provocation is to fracture the unity of the march’s participants and place the Law and Justice party (PiS) in an awkward position — as the largest party currently leading in the polls. If the media succeed in portraying the demonstrators as aggressive fascists, PiS will be forced to choose: either distance itself from the “radicals,” or be publicly associated with their so-called radicalism. While PiS may criticize slogans inconsistent with its program, the most important thing is that it does not disown the football fans — instead, it should truthfully say that provocateurs were posing as fans. Tusk’s provocation aims to pit demonstrators against one another, weaken PiS (which threatens his power), and simultaneously strengthen a marginal pro-Russian current — a move that could help him stay in power.
Labeling PiS as “fascists” would also serve to justify, in the public eye, the arrest of Zbigniew Ziobro. After all, “you can arrest fascists.”
6) And One Day, Flares Will Be “Good” Again…
Of course, flares won’t be condemned as the greatest evil forever. Let’s recall that in 2018, when PiS was in power, Civic Platform (PO) politicians Andrzej Halicki and Sławomir Neumann lit flares during Tusk’s march to create an atmosphere of rebellion. But that will be part of the narrative only after November 11.