Polish intelligence and counterintelligence agencies must assess to what extent the Belarusian side’s declarations can be realized. This is particularly urgent given that, between 2021 and 2023, Belarus cynically and overtly exploited student and work visas to fuel a migration route—an element of a hybrid operation against Poland, said Stanisław Żaryn, advisor to the President of the Republic of Poland and President of the National Security Institute Foundation, in an interview with Niezalezna .pl, commenting on Aleksandr Lukashenko’s announcement about bringing up to 150,000 Pakistani nationals to Belarus.
This declaration emerged from bilateral talks held a few days ago in Minsk. The capital of Belarus hosted Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Following their meeting, Lukashenko announced that he had agreed with the Pakistani side to establish an “air bridge,” through which up to 150,000 citizens of Pakistan would be transported to Belarus.
“We agreed to do everything so that our Pakistani friends—workers, farmers, and intellectuals—could come to Belarus and begin working here. We need them very much and will create favourable conditions for them on-site,”
Lukashenko was quoted as saying by the regime-affiliated news agency BelTA.
Arriving in Belarus This Summer?
A special Islamabad-Minsk flight route is to be launched for this purpose. The timeline was discussed yesterday on the STV channel by Belarusian Minister of Transport and Communications, Aleksei Lakhnavich.
“In November, we signed an international road transport agreement, which will, among other things, allow us to use new logistics routes. However, the agreement has not yet come into force. We are working on its ratification. We plan for that to happen by June,”
the Belarusian official stated.
The Reports Should Be Taken Seriously
It is worth noting that this information has gone largely unnoticed in the Polish media, although it may have serious implications for the situation at the Polish border. The possibility cannot be excluded that the arrival of tens of thousands of Pakistanis is not primarily a matter of labour market needs, but rather yet another instalment in the long-standing hybrid warfare orchestrated by Russia and executed by the Belarusian regime—targeting Poland and the Baltic states.
This is especially concerning given that, for several weeks now, Polish security services have been experiencing increased migratory pressure along the country’s eastern border. According to the latest reports from the Border Guard, over the last weekend alone, more than 115 attempts were recorded of individuals trying to illegally cross into Poland from Belarusian territory.
Furthermore, earlier this year, Lukashenko openly admitted that Belarus serves as a major transit route westward and threatened a new wave of migration “to those who impose economic sanctions on them.”
“Everyone accuses us of facilitating this migration. I’ve always been honest. We will not protect anyone from migrants. Especially those who impose economic sanctions on us. Why should we protect them?”
he stated.
“These are developments we must take very seriously. Polish intelligence and counterintelligence must assess the feasibility of the Belarusian side’s declarations. Especially since from 2021 to 2023, Belarus blatantly used various types of visas—student and work alike—to drive the migration stream, which was part of a hybrid operation targeting Poland,”
Żaryn reiterates in response to developments in Belarus.
“At our eastern border, we have often identified individuals who were granted various types of Belarusian visas—tourist or student. Therefore, this signal of intensified cooperation with Pakistan is cause for concern,” adds the expert in conversation with Niezalezna.pl. He warns that “the coming weeks and months could be very active along the Belarusian border.”
“The Russian and Belarusian regimes will exploit this route to destabilize and polarize Poland. Agreements like this one, forged by Minsk, may herald increased pressure at the border,”
he adds.
All possible scenarios must be considered. One thing is certain—Russia remains hostile to the West and regards Poland as its adversary. The Kremlin aspires to establish its own sphere of influence in Central and Eastern Europe, which entails continuous actions against Poland and NATO as a whole. What unfolds in the coming months will depend heavily on the United States’ approach to Russia and the geopolitical arrangements tied to the war in Ukraine. It will also hinge on whether Russia can afford to redeploy forces currently concentrated in Ukraine to other areas.
“The trend of declining security in Europe is a long-term phenomenon, and we must respond accordingly. This includes further strengthening the presence of U.S. forces in our country, reinforcing NATO’s eastern flank, and activating Europe to prevent being manipulated and to effectively counteract Russian interests. We must also remain active in Washington—though it seems that the government of Donald Tusk has abandoned this direction,”
Żaryn concludes.