“When it comes to finances, a sword of Damocles hangs over us – Poland faces the threat of bankruptcy,” admitted former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki during a debate at the Program Congress Thinking Poland (Myśląc Polska). “We live in times of great change, and it’s necessary to save money for lean years. If I were to give my successor, Mr. Tusk, some advice, I would say that what’s absolutely needed is a program to tighten up VAT, CIT, and excise tax collection. It’s boring – Mr. Tusk doesn’t like that. But without it, it won’t be possible to get public finances under control.”
At the Law and Justice (PiS) Program Congress Thinking Poland (Myśląc Polska) in Katowice, politicians, scholars, and journalists debated today on the state of public finances. The discussion was moderated by former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
“Finances today are like a regatta race in shallow waters”
“In finance, we’re heading for a crash. Within ten years, we face bankruptcy if nothing changes,“ said journalist Tomasz Wróblewski, president of the Warsaw-based think tank Warsaw Enterprise Institute, during today’s debate on public finances. “As a country, we’ll be burdened by ETS and ETS2 taxes and demographic problems. This translates into a worsening financial outlook – for example, today we dropped another point in tax transparency rankings. We keep ‘gilding’ all EU regulations, making the laws more complicated. The procedure for applying for support is extremely complex. Healthcare is also a problem – as President Jarosław Kaczyński noted, we’re spending more and more money on it, but the quality remains unsatisfactory. There are also major disparities in this regard – the wealthy have much better access to care than those who can’t afford private treatment. Public spending today is like a regatta race in shallow waters – sooner or later, we’ll all hit the sand. Still, I think the financial boom we saw under the Law and Justice government is possible again.”
“Politics like Joseph’s dream in Egypt”
Economist Professor Łukasz Hardt, a former member of the Monetary Policy Council (Rada Polityki Pieniężnej), agreed with the journalist that we are living in a time of major transitions and must seek new solutions.
“Fiscal policy – and most economists agree – should work the way Joseph explained Pharaoh’s dream in the Bible: in good years, build reserves for harder times. Why did we manage to survive the pandemic? Because we built up reserves. Now, economic policy needs to be reconsidered. Of course, there’s no golden recipe for public finances – they must be constantly updated. As for solutions, we must take risks. The PiS government succeeded in closing the VAT gap, but this system needs lubrication, or its effectiveness will decline. There are still sectors in Poland where money is available. Since we need to invest in defense, I would propose, for example, defense bonds.”
Piotr Patkowski, former Deputy Minister of Finance, believes we are facing a snowball effect – even with lower taxes, the deficit will still grow. The problem, he said, does not lie with the 800+ program; it’s not social spending that causes the deficit but poor management.
“Brussels knows best? No, it doesn’t”
Former Minister of Funds and Regional Policy and local government official Małgorzata Jarosińska-Jedynak warned during the debate that the year 2026 will be a “dead” year for municipalities, counties, and regions – there will be no money for local investments. “Support is needed not only for metropolises but also for smaller towns – evenly distributed. That’s how it was during the Polish Deal (Polski Ład), when new infrastructure, roads, and bridges were being built. Today, we have centralization and serious mistakes. For example, there’s a package for eastern regions, but only for those bordering Russia and Ukraine – not Belarus. Local governments need more competence to apply for funding, and they need well-designed programs to use it. Brussels acts like it knows best. No, it doesn’t. It’s local governments that know best how to carry out their responsibilities.”
“Carelessness reigns, but we need a national business”
Analyst and journalist Eugeniusz Romer pointed out that Poland currently allocates 4.7 percent of its GDP to defense – amounting to one-third of its revenues – and that this situation will continue for decades.
Panel participants emphasized the need for new regulations concerning the special services. “It didn’t turn out the way some hoped – that Russia would collapse within a few years,“ explained Romer. “Russia is stronger, its economy has switched to wartime production, and it uses artificial intelligence. We must arm ourselves – though in finance, it should be a marathon, not a sprint. Right now, there’s carelessness. We have a strategy, but it’s outdated – the document dates back to 2020. A new project has been drafted, but it doesn’t include migration or the threats from Russia. Today, modern warfare is about drones – Ukraine uses around 9,000 per day and produces them itself. That’s a lesson! In sensitive sectors, we must have domestic production. The Germans and the French are arguing over who will build the next-generation fighters. They’re investing in their own industries. Poland must step up and produce its own weapons and armaments – it’s a matter of sovereignty.”
“A sword of Damocles hangs over us”
“When it comes to finances, a sword of Damocles hangs over us – Poland faces the threat of bankruptcy,“ summarized former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. “We live in times of great change, and it’s necessary to save money for lean years. If I were to give my successor, Mr. Tusk, some advice, I would say that what’s absolutely needed is a program to tighten up VAT, CIT, and excise tax collection. It’s boring – Mr. Tusk doesn’t like that. But without it, it won’t be possible to get public finances under control. As for investments, we must focus on defense, regions, and subregions. That’s the sine qua non condition for success.”