Mixed Signals in Poland’s Inflation Landscape: December Data Insights

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    In December, Polish holiday shopping took a toll on wallets, revealing a 6.1% inflation surge, a slight relief from November’s 6.6%. The 0.5% drop suggests a potential return to normalcy after October’s peak at 18.4%. Analysts expected a steeper decline, forecasting around 6.5%. Consumer goods and services prices rose by 0.1%, marking a 6.1% increase compared to December 2022. Notably, fuel prices played a pivotal role, decreasing by almost 2%.


    Concerns about a prolonged slowdown in December were alleviated, yet a rapid return to the National Bank of Poland’s target of below 3.5% remains uncertain. Despite promising data, the path to normalization may encounter obstacles, with food prices rising by 5.9% YoY. Energy carriers saw a 9.8% hike but decreased by 0.3% compared to November.

    Detailed statistics are pending, with the full report scheduled for January 15. The 2024 budget forecasts a 6.6% annual average inflation, while NBP’s November projection aimed for 4.6%. December’s economist survey anticipates a 5.5% inflation drop in 2024.

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