A recent survey conducted by Ipsos for TOK FM and OKO.press has revealed a growing concern among the Polish population regarding the possibility of a Russian military attack in the coming years. The survey, which asked Polish citizens whether they believed Russia could launch an attack on Poland, showed that 48% of respondents harbor fears of such an aggression.
The poll comes amidst heightened tensions and an increasing sense of unease in the media landscape over potential regional conflicts. Statements by Western politicians, such as French President Emmanuel Macron’s call for NATO troops to be sent to Ukraine, have done little to assuage these fears.
According to the survey results, 12% of those questioned stated they “definitely believe” an attack is possible, while 36% said it was “rather likely.” Conversely, 32% of respondents think it’s “rather unlikely” that Russia would initiate a military strike against Poland, and 9% are confident that it “definitely will not” happen. The remaining 11% are undecided on the matter.
The Ipsos survey also delved into the perspectives of voters from various political parties. It found that 62% of Law and Justice (PiS) party supporters anticipate a Russian assault on Poland. This view is shared by 48% of Civic Coalition (KO) voters, 42% of New Left voters, 40% of Third Way voters, and 36% of Confederation party supporters.
Among the political party supporters, the strongest disbelief in a potential attack comes from the Confederation’s electorate, with 15% convinced that Poland will not be targeted. In contrast, only 6% of PiS supporters, 9% of KO supporters, 2% of New Left supporters, and 4% of Third Way supporters categorically reject the possibility of a Russian attack.
The survey, carried out using a mixed-mode approach on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 adult Poles between February 22 and 26, 2024, highlights the prevailing apprehensions among the Polish population regarding their security and the geopolitical stability of their region.