Who, in the opinion of Poles, will win the parliamentary elections in 2027? This question was asked to participants of the latest poll conducted by United Surveys. It turns out that the difference between the main leaders of the survey is minimal.
Although the official campaign ahead of the parliamentary elections has not yet begun, the pre-campaign is gaining momentum. Yesterday, the leader of Law and Justice (PiS), Jarosław Kaczyński, announced that Prof. Przemysław Czarnek will be the party’s candidate for prime minister.
Recent polls measuring support for individual political parties indicate that the leader is the Civic Coalition (Koalicja Obywatelska) — the largest party in the current ruling camp. The next places belong to Law and Justice and the Confederation. According to Poles, the remaining coalition partners of Donald Tusk may have trouble crossing the electoral threshold (PSL and Poland 2050).
PiS or Civic Coalition — Who Will Win the 2027 Elections?
This time, United Surveys — commissioned by Wirtualna Polska — examined not which party Poles would vote for today, but which party they believe will win the parliamentary elections in 2027.
The results indicate that the Polish political scene remains largely dominated by the two largest parties — similarly to what is seen in standard support polls.
According to respondents, the Civic Coalition has the greatest chances of winning the elections — this answer was indicated by 37.9 percent of participants in the survey. Law and Justice received slightly less support. According to 34.9 percent of respondents, the party led by Jarosław Kaczyński could win the elections in 2027.
The difference therefore amounts to only 3 percentage points, which — compared to polls measuring direct party support — is positive news for the PiS camp.
Tusk’s Coalition Partners With No Real Chances
According to the survey, the remaining parties are perceived rather as forces with no realistic chance of winning the elections.
Third place on the podium — similarly to standard support polls — was taken by Confederation. Only 4.6 percent of respondents believe it could win the 2027 elections.
Even weaker results were recorded by the parties that previously formed the Third Way alliance, which in this survey were assessed separately. Only 2.3 percent of respondents predict a victory for PSL, while just 1.2 percent indicated Poland 2050.
However, the most surprising result was recorded by The Left (Lewica). The party received exactly 0.0 percent.
An important role in the upcoming campaign may also be played by undecided voters. As many as 18.6 percent of respondents — nearly one in five — chose the answer “I don’t know / Hard to say.”
The survey was conducted between February 27 and March 1, 2026, using CATI and CAWI methods (computer-assisted telephone interviews and computer-assisted web interviews), on a sample of 1,000 respondents.