The hole in the state’s finances is not only growing—it is reaching unprecedented proportions. According to expert forecasts, the deficit in 2025 may hit as much as 6.4 percent of GDP. This is one of the highest levels in history and, unfortunately, a real threat to our savings, salaries, and pensions.
Economists are increasingly alarmed. The reason? Poland’s public finances have entered a dangerous path.
According to the latest forecasts, this year the deficit of the general government sector will reach 6.4 percent of GDP. This is more than expected just a few months ago, when the figure was put at 5.8 percent. The difference may seem small, but in practice it means billions of zlotys in additional debt that the state will have to borrow in order to balance the budget. This figure is one of the highest since the beginning of the transformation and places Poland among the most indebted countries in Europe.
As if that weren’t enough, public debt is also rising. Back in 2024, the debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 55.3 percent. Now economists warn that in 2025 it will approach 58 percent. This means it is already “knocking” at the constitutional threshold of 60 percent. Exceeding this limit could force drastic austerity measures, which in practice would translate into cuts in social and investment spending. In other words, even less money for healthcare, education, or family policy. For example, there may be insufficient funds to pay benefits in their current form.
Empty coffers
There are several reasons for this situation. Above all, the costs of servicing debt keep rising. Every borrowed zloty must be repaid with interest, and with high interest rates, these are becoming increasingly painful. Moreover, tax revenues are not growing as fast as expected. The economic slowdown, weaker results of many companies, and lower consumption are all causing a shortfall in the budget.
Economists warn that ordinary citizens will feel the effects of this deficit. The bigger the hole in public finances, the greater the pressure to raise taxes. In practice, this could mean even higher prices for fuel, alcohol, cigarettes, or energy, as well as reductions in tax reliefs used by millions of Poles. At the same time, in search of savings, the state may suspend infrastructure investments that improve quality of life and create new jobs.
Loan repayments to rise
Another problem is the risk of rising borrowing costs. If Poland has to borrow more and more on international markets, investors will start demanding higher risk premiums. This will affect bond yields and, in turn, the interest rates on loans taken by Polish banks and individual clients. As a result, mortgage payments may increase—hitting thousands of Polish families.
There is also concern about the outlook for the coming years. Estimates suggest that a deficit of around 6 percent of GDP may persist into the following year. This means that instead of a quick return to financial balance, we face a prolonged period of living on credit. In such a situation, any economic shock—another wave of crisis, a sudden surge in energy prices, or problems with exports—could prove particularly painful.