Experts from the Eastern Flank Institute and the Sobieski Institute warn that record-high defence spending is not translating into the growth of Poland’s defence industry. In a report presented during the MSPO 2025 trade fair in Kielce, it was emphasised that Poland faces a choice: either build a competitive defence sector or remain dependent on foreign suppliers for years to come.
How to move from being an arms importer to becoming a security exporter?
According to the report “From Arms Importer to Security Exporter? Prospects for the Development of Poland’s DefenceIndustry”, Poland’s defence budget in 2025 will amount to 44.3 billion USD. More than 54 percent of this sum, nearly 90 billion PLN, will be allocated to the purchase of weapons and military equipment. However, less than 40 percent of these expenditures will go to the domestic defence industry.
“The war in Ukraine has shown how crucial it is for a country to maintain autonomy in arms production. It has also demonstrated the importance of diversification and dispersion of the industry. In the early stages of the war, Ukraine’s defence industry was largely destroyed precisely because it was so centralised. Today, private companies bear the main burden of arms production in Ukraine. While not forgetting the state-owned sector, we stress in the report why it is so important for government policy to also support the private defence industry,”
said Michał Dworczyk, president of the Eastern Flank Institute, opening the report’s presentation.
Experts point out that in 2023, as much as 81 percent of Poland’s arms exports went to a single recipient. At the same time, the Ministry of Defence admits it is unable to meet the target stipulating that half of defence purchases should come from domestic industry.
The outlook is even bleaker. In 2026, the Ministry of Defence plans to allocate just 0.5 percent of its budget to research and development. As a result, defence spending is not translating into the development of Poland’s own industrial and technological capabilities.
The report is based on an analysis of defence industry models in countries such as the United States, Israel, South Korea, and Turkey. The authors emphasise that in each of these cases, an active role by the state was crucial to building a modern and competitive sector.
To reverse these negative trends, the report outlines several key directions for action:
- A unified law and long-term strategy for the defence sector, with clearly defined objectives and a coordinating government body;
- An active role of the state in financing, through, for example, a Defence Industry Support Fund that also includes SMEs and start-ups;
- Reform of the planning system within the Ministry of Defence, shortening and simplifying procedures, increasing transparency, and involving industry in planning processes;
- Transformation of the Armament Agency into a procurement and development institution supporting not only purchases but also technology testing, business activity, and exports;
- Increased investment in research and development and the use of dual-use technologies (AI, cyber, space).
The full report is available here: How to go from an arms importer to a security exporter?