Head of Poland’s Development Fund, Pawel Borys, has expressed optimism about the country’s economic growth in 2024, anticipating that it might surpass the 3 percent mark. Writing on the X platform, Borys highlighted the emergence of a favorable scenario characterized by a “soft landing,” attributing it to a judicious policy blend of monetary tightening alongside a counter-cyclical fiscal approach, maintaining a deficit of approximately 5 percent of GDP during economic downturns.
Borys pointed out that Poland’s economy is transitioning to a higher gear, citing a Q3 year-on-year economic growth of 0.4 percent. He anticipates that the annual GDP growth in the upcoming quarters could already exceed 2 percent, emphasizing the presence of robust growth drivers, such as investments escalating at a rate of over 5 percent and positive net exports, accompanied by a current account surplus of EUR 0.4 billion in September.
Despite lingering challenges such as the impact of the inventory cycle, subdued consumption, and weakened external demand, Borys remains optimistic. He noted that real wage growth is indicative of an imminent consumption rebound. According to a flash estimate from Poland’s statistics office GUS, the country’s GDP in Q3 2023 saw a year-on-year growth of 0.4 percent, a positive shift from the 0.6 percent year-on-year decline observed in the second quarter. Economists surveyed by PAP Biznes had initially projected a more conservative GDP growth of 0.3 percent year-on-year for the third quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP expanded by 1.4 percent in the third quarter, reflecting positive momentum in Poland’s economic landscape.