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    Poland’s Ruling Party Maintains Lead as October 15 Election Approaches

    A recent poll conducted by United Surveys for the Wirtualna Polska news website has shed light on the current political climate in Poland. According to the poll, Poland’s ruling conservatives, the Law and Justice party (PiS), are expected to receive the most votes in the upcoming parliamentary vote, with 32.3 percent backing.

    The largest opposition group, the centrist Civic Coalition (KO), trails behind with 26.4 percent support. The centre-right Third Way, a coalition of the Polish People’s Party and Poland 2050, secures 12.1 percent, while the far-right Confederation and the New Left receive 9.0 percent and 8.1 percent respectively.

    However, despite PiS leading the polls, the survey indicates that they would fall short of securing a parliamentary majority in the 460-member Sejm (lower house of parliament). The PiS party would attain 186 seats, well below the necessary 231 for a majority. The Civic Coalition would secure 148 seats, the Third Way 57, the Confederation 37, and the New Left 31. Additionally, the German minority party would secure one seat.

    Even in a potential coalition with the Confederation, PiS would not attain the majority, as right-wing formations could count on a total of 223 seats, lacking at least 8 seats needed to form a government. On the other hand, the opposition, together with the German minority MP, would have 237 seats, surpassing PiS’s 2019 election result.

    The poll, conducted between September 30 and October 1, sampled 1,000 Poles. It occurred before two significant events: the opposition’s massive ‘March of a Million Hearts’ in Warsaw and a PiS convention in Katowice, which concluded in the afternoon. As Poland braces for the upcoming elections, the nation remains on the edge, anticipating the outcome that will shape its political future.


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