The rise in the minimum wage has been identified as the driving force behind the wage increases observed in January 2024. This insight comes from the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) in response to data released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS).
According to the GUS, the average gross salary in the enterprise sector in January 2024 reached PLN 7,768.35, marking a significant increase of 12.8% compared to the previous year. However, employment in this sector experienced a slight decline of 0.2%.
PIE analysts project a slowdown in the pace of wage growth in the coming months, although they anticipate the slowdown to be moderate. They forecast an average wage increase of about 10.3% across the economy for the entire year, partly due to salary hikes in the public sector.
“The performance in the enterprise sector in the second half of the year will be weaker. Nevertheless, the pace of wage growth will significantly outstrip inflation, which is expected to hover around 4%. As a result, we will see an increase in consumption and a rebuilding of savings,” the PIE analysts predict.
Furthermore, the coming months might see a decrease in the number of jobs, but the rise in unemployment rates is expected to be minimal. In the first quarter, unemployment rates are anticipated to be close to 5.3%, mainly due to seasonal fluctuations. A stabilization around these figures is expected thereafter, rather than a significant drop.
This development signifies a crucial turning point for the Polish economy, suggesting a period of increased consumer spending and economic revitalization, despite potential challenges in the job market.