Civic Coalition remains the leader in the latest poll, but victory would not necessarily mean taking full control of power. The survey indicates that even the New Left’s presence in the Sejm might not be enough for Donald Tusk to form a parliamentary majority, as the other parties that could potentially join such a coalition failed to cross the electoral threshold.
According to the latest poll conducted by the Pollster Research Institute for Super Express, if parliamentary elections were held now, Civic Coalition would win the largest share of support. Donald Tusk’s party would be backed by 32.45 percent of respondents.
Law and Justice would come second with 24.97 percent, while Confederation would take third place, supported by 12.75 percent of those surveyed.
Even with the New Left, a majority may be out of reach
The Sejm would also be entered by the Confederation of the Polish Crown, with 8.97 percent support, and the New Left, which received 7.79 percent.
It is precisely this part of the poll, however, that attracts the most attention. Although Civic Coalition ranks first, Donald Tusk’s potential coalition partners have virtually disappeared from parliament. According to the survey, other parties with which Civic Coalition could form a majority would fail to enter the Sejm.
In practice, this means that even together with the New Left, Tusk’s party might not have enough seats to form a government.
A difficult path to a majority
The poll shows that high support for Civic Coalition does not automatically translate into the ability to govern. What matters most is the balance of forces across the entire Sejm, not only the result of the winning party.
If the remaining parties opposed to Law and Justice failed to cross the electoral threshold, Donald Tusk’s options for building a majority would be very limited. This would mean having to seek partners among political forces with which cooperation currently appears highly unlikely.
The poll was conducted by the Pollster Research Institute on June 30-July 1 on a sample of 1,042 adult Poles.