Who would Poles vote for if the presidential election were held at the end of January 2026? This was examined by the polling institute IBRiS. The survey shows that there is a very large gap between the two most frequently indicated candidates.
According to the results of the IBRiS study, if the presidential election had taken place in January, the first round would have been won by Karol Nawrocki. The civic candidate supported by the party Law and Justice received 39.6 percent of the vote.
Second place would go to Rafał Trzaskowski, deputy leader of the Civic Coalition. However, the gap between them is crushing. The mayor of Warsaw would receive 27.4 percent of the respondents’ votes.
The podium is rounded out by the leader of the Confederation party, Sławomir Mentzen, who was indicated by 6.9 percent of those surveyed.
Further places were taken by Grzegorz Braun (6.7 percent), Adrian Zandberg (5.3 percent), Magdalena Biejat (4.8 percent), and Szymon Hołownia (1.1 percent). Meanwhile, 3.2 percent of respondents said they would vote for “other candidates,” while 5 percent had no specified preference.
It should be recalled that Nawrocki defeated Trzaskowski in the second round of the presidential election by a margin of 369,451 votes, or 1.9 percentage points.