In two matters where it seemed that changes would not come quickly, we are now witnessing extraordinary acceleration. I believe they share similar causes. These matters are the war in Ukraine and the political situation in Poland, writes Tomasz Sakiewicz, editor-in-chief of Gazeta Polska, in the latest issue of the weekly.
For many months, Ukrainians found themselves under the overwhelming pressure of the Russian war machine. Moscow, regardless of the cost, sent hundreds of thousands of soldiers to the front, who either died or returned wounded. The enormous losses in equipment were compensated for by mass adaptation of post-Soviet scrap. The Ukrainians received better weaponry from the West, but they were unable to make up for the numerical disparity. Thus, the outcome of the war seemed destined to be decided by human and economic exhaustion. In recent months, however, aid for Ukraine has turned out to exceed Russia’s capacities. The Ukrainians themselves, with Western support, have also begun producing increasingly advanced equipment. We are now witnessing the effects: Putin’s offensive has completely collapsed. At the same time, serious signs of crisis are visible in the Kremlin’s economy. Fuel shortages in a country that was once the world’s largest oil exporter serve as a symbolic illustration of even deeper problems. Instead of empty talk, Donald Trump decided to tighten the screws on Russia, and the results are already visible. Moscow is responding with aggressive behavior toward NATO countries. But in reality, it is powerless. Yes, it may provoke a larger confrontation, but unless it resorts to weapons of mass destruction, it will not win.
Putin will have to sue for peace, and the longer he delays, the worse his situation will become.
Changes in Polish political life have probably surprised all observers. The ruling coalition has just entered a phase of acute crisis and is unlikely to emerge from it quickly. It is only a matter of time before there is a change at the head of government. And it may not be just one change. Karol Nawrocki’s victory shook the coalition’s stability, but did not topple it. However, a process of decline has begun with regard to the appropriation of the state, as evidenced by the appointment of the current minister of justice. Effectiveness has been replaced with ostentatious brutality in governing the country. This is characteristic of the end of a political formation. The ruling coalition is now slowly losing unity on key issues. Why is this happening? Above all, it is losing popular support, but until now, it did not care about that. I have the impression that the team in Warsaw, assembled in Biden’s time, has lost its geopolitical footing, while Washington has begun to clean up the mess it created here two years ago. If that is indeed the case, the changes will accelerate even further. We will soon find out.