The latest polls ahead of Sunday’s vote show a tight race, with the candidates running neck and neck. However, a closer look has been taken at how voters who did not participate in the first round plan to vote. The vast majority of these “new” voters are choosing Karol Nawrocki, the independent civic candidate.
In just three days — on June 1 — Poles will decide who will become the next President of Poland. The second round of the election pits Karol Nawrocki, the civic candidate, against Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate of the Civic Coalition.
Latest Polls
While the recent polls published this week don’t clearly indicate who is likely to win, one thing is certain: the race is extremely close.
For example, according to the results of a survey conducted by Research Partner and published today, 46.1% of respondents plan to vote for Karol Nawrocki, while 45.8% support Rafał Trzaskowski.
How Will “New” Voters Vote?
Łukasz Pawłowski, president of the National Research Group (Ogólnopolska Grupa Badawcza), shared findings on social media from a poll — albeit a small sample — focused on “new” voters, meaning those who did not vote in the first round of the 2025 presidential election. It’s worth noting that voter turnout in the first round, held on May 18, was 66.8%, meaning more than 33% of eligible voters did not cast a ballot. How will this impact the second round?
According to the results presented by the head of the National Research Group, among voters who skipped the first round but intend to vote on Sunday, Karol Nawrocki holds the lead.
The civic candidate would receive 53.9% of the vote, while Rafał Trzaskowski would get 43% of support among this group.