The three Baltic States – Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia – are preparing plans to evacuate hundreds of thousands of citizens from areas bordering Russia, Reuters reported on Friday. These countries have long warned of a possible act of aggression from Moscow.
Hostile signals from the Kremlin are multiplying. The Baltic States report cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and violations of their airspace by Russian drones and aircraft. Although Russia insists it does not plan to attack NATO countries, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia – occupied and annexed during World War II – have doubled their defense spending since 2022, the agency noted.
In May, the Baltic States agreed to cooperate in the field of civil defense. Plans are being drawn up in case of a potential Kremlin invasion.
Renatas Pozela, head of the Lithuanian Fire and Rescue Department and one of the officials working on the plans, said that various scenarios must be considered.
“It is possible that we will see a powerful army along the borders of the Baltic States, whose obvious goal will be to capture all three countries within three days to a week,” Pozela told the agency. Other possibilities include sabotage of communications or transport, a mass influx of migrants, social unrest among Russian-speaking minorities, or false reports triggering mass panic and flight. “An evacuation of half the population living within a 40-kilometer radius of the borders with Russia and Belarus, around 400,000 people, is being planned,” Pozela said.
The city of Kaunas plans to accommodate about 300,000 people in schools, universities, churches, and an arena where Robbie Williams and Roger Waters recently performed. Similar preparations are underway in other cities.
In many towns, assembly points have been established, trains and buses designated for evacuees, and supplies such as toilet paper and camp beds stockpiled in warehouses. People fleeing by car will be directed to secondary roads to free up main routes for incoming troops. A map showing the cities where people can seek refuge is already available.
“It is very reassuring for our society to know that we are ready and planning ahead,” Lithuanian National Security Advisor Kestutis Budrys told Reuters. “We’ve done our homework.”
None of the Baltic States plan to evacuate people abroad. The route through the Suwałki Gap – the strip of land wedged between Russia and Belarus that connects Lithuania to Poland – will be reserved for the military. “We must take into account the risk associated with the Suwałki Gap,” said Ivar Mai, Estonia’s evacuation adviser, speaking to the agency.
Estonia is preparing shelters for one-tenth of its population, while others would stay with relatives. Among potential evacuees would be around two-thirds of the city of Narva, which has a predominantly Russian-speaking population. Authorities estimate that at least half of this group would require assistance.
Latvia assumes that in the event of an attack, one-third of its population would leave their homes, said Ivars Nakurts, deputy head of the Latvian rescue services, speaking to the agency. “Plans are being prepared for all contingencies,” he emphasized.