Twenty‑eight per cent of Poles say they would vote for Rafał Trzaskowski (Civic Coalition) in the upcoming presidential election, according to a new Ipsos poll conducted for the 19.30 news programme on the state‑run—now controversially taken‑over—TVP. Support for Karol Nawrocki, backed by Law and Justice (PiS), stands at 22 per cent, while Confederation’s Sławomir Mentzen pockets 15 per cent. The figures leave little doubt: the Warsaw mayor’s lead is shrinking fast.
Ipsos asked respondents: “Which candidate would you vote for in the presidential election if the ballot included the following names: Sławomir Mentzen, Rafał Trzaskowski, Karol Nawrocki, Magdalena Biejat, Szymon Hołownia, Marek Jakubiak, Adrian Zandberg, Krzysztof Stanowski, Grzegorz Braun, Artur Bartosiewicz, Joanna Senyszyn, Marek Woch and Maciej Maciak?”
Trzaskowski still tops the field with 28 per cent. Nawrocki, the PiS‑endorsed challenger, draws 22 per cent. Confederation’s Mentzen rounds out the podium on 15 per cent.
Next comes Third Way candidate Szymon Hołownia on 7 per cent. Adrian Zandberg, leader of the Left‑wing Together party, garners 6 per cent. Both Left candidate Magdalena Biejat and independent Grzegorz Braun would take 4 per cent apiece, while 3 per cent would vote for Krzysztof Stanowski.
Just 1 per cent back each of Marek Jakubiak, Artur Bartosiewicz and Joanna Senyszyn. None of the respondents chose Marek Woch or Maciej Maciak.
Eight per cent remain undecided going into the first‑round vote.
The mixed‑mode survey (CATI & CAWI) was carried out 14–16 April 2025 on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 Polish adults.