According to the latest United Surveys poll for Wirtualna Polska, if parliamentary elections were held today, only three parties would secure seats in the Sejm. None of them are coalition partners of Tusk’s party.
The Civic Coalition leads the poll with 31% support—Tusk’s only good news. The Law and Justice Party (PiS) follows with 26.5%, while Confederation secures third place with 16.4%.
These three parties would be the only ones to enter parliament. The Third Way, with 6.7%, and the Left, running independently with 4.7%, would fail to meet the required thresholds—8% for coalitions and 5% for individual parties.
Wirtualna Polska also translated these percentages into projected parliamentary seats, using an electoral calculator developed by Prof. Jarosław Flis from Jagiellonian University. The Civic Coalition would hold 200 seats, PiS 167, and Confederation 93.
This distribution means a potential PiS-Confederation alliance would control 260 seats—60 more than Tusk’s party, leaving him without a clear path to a governing coalition.