28.3% for Law and Justice (PiS) and 25.6% for the Civic Coalition (KO) — these are the results of the latest poll conducted by United Surveys for Wirtualna Polska. Public opinion research leaves little doubt: if the elections had taken place this past weekend, the current ruling coalition would not have been able to form a government.
According to the survey, the party with the most support at present is Jarosław Kaczyński’s Law and Justice (PiS), which could count on 28.3% of the respondents’ votes. This represents a drop of 1.7 percentage points compared to the previous survey.
In second place is the Civic Coalition, which received 25.6% support among those surveyed — a decrease of 7.4 percentage points.
Rounding out the top three is Confederation (Konfederacja), with 15%. This group also experienced a drop — by 1 percentage point.
Who Else Would Make It to Parliament?
The Left (Lewica) would also enter the Sejm, with 6.6% support — an increase of 0.6 percentage points. Despite a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points compared to previous research, the Razem party would also surpass the electoral threshold, reaching 5%.
Polska 2050 (4.4%) and the Polish People’s Party (PSL) (4.1%) would both fail to secure seats in the Sejm. Confederation of the Polish Crown (Konfederacja Korony Polskiej) also fell below the threshold with 3.9% support.
As many as 7.1% of respondents did not indicate who they would vote for.
No Majority for the Government
Calculations by the news outlet indicate that Law and Justice (PiS) would receive 177 seats, Civic Coalition (KO) — 158 seats. Confederation would bring 84 representatives into the Sejm, the Left — 26, and Razem — 14.
This means the ruling coalition would not be able to form a government.
The survey was conducted by United Surveys on behalf of Wirtualna Polska from June 27 to 29, 2025, using the CATI & CAWI methods on a sample of 1,000 respondents.