“The defensive operations plan was dangerous. Its implementation directly threatened the existence of our state and its defense capabilities. There was a lack of forces and resources, and the assumption that NATO support would arrive within 10 to 14 days was unrealistic—it would actually take 2 to 3 months. The General Staff knew the truth,” said Col. Grzegorz Kwaśniak during a meeting of the Parliamentary Committee on Counteracting Lawlessness, which addressed the charges against Mariusz Błaszczak and Prof. Sławomir Cenckiewicz over the disclosure of Poland’s “Vistula line” defense plans.
Revealing the “Vistula Line.” Charges Against Błaszczak and Prof. Cenckiewicz
On Thursday, former director of the Military Historical Bureau, Prof. Sławomir Cenckiewicz, appeared before the military division of the Warsaw District Prosecutor’s Office, where he was formally charged with the 2023 disclosure of parts of Poland’s “Warta” defense plan.
Previously, former Minister of National Defense Mariusz Błaszczak had also been charged in the same case.
The proceedings, led by prosecutor Marcin Maksjan, were a key topic of Thursday’s meeting of the Parliamentary Committee on Counteracting Lawlessness. One of the expert speakers was Col. Grzegorz Kwaśniak.
“Anyone who tries to judge Minister Błaszczak’s performance as head of the Ministry of National Defense should first look at the state of the Armed Forces in 2015, just months before the PiS government came to power. In the spring of 2015, the book Wygaszanie Polski (Dimming Poland) and the article Who Will Defend Us? were published, both of which assessed the Polish Armed Forces’ ability to carry out an independent defensive operation. That assessment identified five key weaknesses,” he said.
He added that in 2015, “defensive forces were poorly deployed—most were stationed along the western border and central Poland, leaving the eastern frontier virtually undefended.”
“This began to change in 2016. Antoni Macierewicz established the Territorial Defense Forces, starting—very deliberately—on the eastern border,” Kwaśniak noted.
“Phony Professionalization”
He further stated that “the so-called professionalization of the Polish Armed Forces initiated in 2008 under Tusk led to the collapse of the defense structure, triggering an uncontrolled outflow of professional soldiers.” He listed several issues:
- No trained reserves
- Training gaps due to the suspension of conscription
- A broken training system that had evolved over 10 years
- Outdated equipment and weaponry
- An unrealistic and harmful concept of an independent defense operation
“There was no chance of effective defense. Those 13 brigades could only conduct delaying actions while waiting—realistically, not 14 days, but 2 to 3 months. That would mean two-thirds of the country overrun,” Kwaśniak explained.
He also discussed the assumptions of the classified document Assessment of the Armed Forces.
“This document, created every two years by the General Staff for the Council of Ministers, assesses operational readiness. It’s a classified document that has now been declassified. It showed that only 49% of land forces had any combat readiness, while over 50% were unclassified altogether. In 2012, the General Staff knew this. Only 21% of forces were high-readiness. So who is responsible? Primarily the generals who led the General Staff from 1990 to 2015. The last of them, Gen. Gocuł—who is now vocal—had his chance to do something meaningful but, I would say, squandered it,” he remarked.
“The General Staff Knew the Truth”
In his view, “responsibility extends to politicians too, because it is ultimately the prime minister and the defense minister who supervise the Armed Forces. We must be aware of that.”
“The defensive operations plan was dangerous. Its implementation directly threatened the existence of our state and its defense capabilities. There was a lack of forces and resources, and the assumption that NATO support would arrive in 10 to 14 days was false—it would realistically take 2 to 3 months. The General Staff knew the truth,” he concluded.