The leader remains the same, but the gap between the two largest political groupings is clearly narrowing. The latest poll by IBRiS for Polsat News shows that Civic Coalition retains first place, but Law and Justice now trails by less than six percentage points. At the same time, the current distribution of support raises questions about the ability of Donald Tusk’s camp to build a parliamentary majority.
According to the survey, the Civic Coalition can count on 29.3 percent of votes among respondents declaring their intention to participate in the election. Second place is occupied by Law and Justice with 23.7 percent support, a difference of 5.6 percentage points.
Support of 8 percent was also recorded for Confederation of the Polish Crown. This result is similar to that of The Left, which was indicated by 8.1 percent of respondents.
Tusk’s problem. Only one coalition partner above the threshold
The poll shows that if elections were held today, Donald Tusk would have very limited options for building a parliamentary majority.
Among the parties that until recently formed the broadly understood governing camp, only The Left exceeds the electoral threshold, with 8.1 percent support. Other potential coalition partners fall below the level required to enter the Sejm.
Polish People’s Party can count on 4.2 percent support, Razem on 2.9 percent, while Poland 2050 reaches only 1.5 percent.
This means that with such a distribution of votes, the Civic Coalition would remain the only major grouping of the current governing coalition, and its ability to form a majority would depend on entirely new political configurations.
Who do young Poles support?
The strongest position among the youngest voters belongs to Confederation. Among people aged 18 to 29, the party receives 37.5 percent support. Among voters aged 30–39, it can count on 20.1 percent.
Law and Justice remains the clear leader among senior voters. In the 60–69 and 70+ age groups, the party led by Jarosław Kaczyński records 42.7 percent and 44.4 percent support respectively.
KO dominates in large cities
The Civic Coalition enjoys its strongest support in the largest urban centers. In cities with more than 250,000 inhabitants, it receives 40.6 percent support, while Law and Justice gains 20.8 percent.
The opposite situation is observed in rural areas, where PiS leads with 30.1 percent support compared to 22.7 percent for KO.
Turnout approaching 65 percent
A total of 64.7 percent of respondents declared that they would participate in the election. Women are more likely than men to go to the polls, at 66.2 percent and 63.1 percent respectively.
The lowest level of mobilization was recorded among the youngest voters. In the 18–29 age group, 47.3 percent declared their intention to vote. The highest turnout was observed among people aged 70 and over, where it reaches 73.4 percent.
The IBRiS survey for Polsat News was conducted between May 29 and June 2, 2026, using the CATI method on a nationwide sample of 1,000 respondents.