For the first time in a while, there’s a new leader in the party support rankings. According to a United Surveys poll conducted for Wirtualna Polska, Law and Justice (PiS) has overtaken the Civic Coalition. “It’s clear that when Rafał Trzaskowski starts to lose ground, it also drags down support for Civic Platform,” said political scientist Dr. Krzysztof Piekarski.
In the latest United Surveys poll for Wirtualna Polska, a leadership shift has occurred. The largest share of respondents—29.6%—said they would vote for Law and Justice. Compared to the early April survey, support for Jarosław Kaczyński’s party rose by 0.8 percentage points. WP notes this is the first United Surveys poll showing PiS in the lead since January 2025.
Civic Coalition saw a significant drop in support, with 28.6% of respondents indicating they would vote for them—down 6.3 percentage points from just a few weeks ago. Confederation also saw a decline, falling by 2.5 percentage points to 13.9%. The Left would also make it into parliament, with 7.9% support—an increase of 2.9 percentage points.
The Third Way alliance would pass the parliamentary threshold with 8.1% (up 1.2 percentage points). In previous surveys, the Poland 2050–PSL alliance struggled to cross the 8% threshold required for coalitions. The Razem party would remain outside of parliament, though its support has increased to 3.5% (up by 3 percentage points). Meanwhile, 8.4% of those surveyed remain undecided.
If parliamentary elections were held this coming Sunday, 56.9% of respondents said they would vote. 41.8% declared they would not participate, while 1.3% remain undecided.
“In general, when Rafał Trzaskowski begins to lose ground and Karol Nawrocki starts closing the gap, it reflects directly in Civic Platform’s declining support. After all, he’s the Civic Platform’s favorite—not the entire ruling coalition’s,” — commented Dr. Krzysztof Piekarski of the University of Gdańsk.
The United Surveys poll for Wirtualna Polska was conducted between April 17 and 19, 2025, using a combination of CATI (telephone interviews) and CAWI (online interviews) on a representative sample of 1,000 respondents.