Polska 2050 has split almost exactly in half. Instead of one large parliamentary caucus, there will now be two, each consisting of 15 MPs. It is already clear that one of them intends to assume the role of an internal opposition within the government. Is the government at risk of losing its majority?
On March 26, Polska 2050 will mark the fifth anniversary of its founding. Riding the wave of electoral success achieved by Szymon Hołownia in the 2020 presidential election, the movement first emerged as an association and later as a political party. From the outset, the project faced an uphill battle. Many commentators argued that too much time would pass between the presidential and parliamentary elections to sustain the momentum of its initial success. These analyses proved incorrect. In 2023, Third Way, co-created with the Polish People’s Party (PSL), placed third in the parliamentary elections. Polska 2050 secured 33 seats in the Sejm and five in the Senate. The party’s greatest asset was its leader, Szymon Hołownia, who became the second-highest-ranking official in the state.
However, little remains of those early successes. For now, the party has survived, but it now holds the smallest parliamentary caucus possible.
Prepared to Align with a Stronger Partner
A split within Polska 2050 had been anticipated for some time. The turning point came with the scandal surrounding late-night meetings between Jarosław Kaczyński and Szymon Hołownia at Adam Bielan’s residence. From that moment on, disputes around the leader of Polska 2050 intensified. At the same time, the party clearly began to decline in the polls. For politicians, especially those who have already belonged to several formations, this is a clear signal: it is time to look for a new formula.
Szymon Hołownia attempted to regain the initiative by announcing internal elections in Polska 2050. Instead of strengthening the party, these elections deepened internal struggles and unrest. Ultimately, 15 MPs and three senators decided to leave the party and establish a new parliamentary caucus called Centrum. Paulina Hennig-Kloska became its leader, having narrowly lost the leadership contest in Polska 2050 to Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz.
“Centrum was created as a result of a certain impulse. It is not a project that has been thoroughly thought through as of today,” Rafał Komarewicz said on Kanał Zero. Indeed, none of the politicians involved currently provides clear answers about the future. Each offers a different narrative. Some say details will be revealed this week; others claim they need months. The one point they share is that none excludes the possibility of merging in the future with another entity, either Civic Coalition or a new initiative that journalistic speculation refers to as Rafał Brzoska’s party.
In theory, the new formation is building structures. In practice, this may prove difficult. For now, Centrum consists of 18 members, lacks public funding, and appears to have no comprehensive strategy. Its leader is a relatively unpopular Minister of Climate and Environment who, since 2015, has already been affiliated with Nowoczesna, Civic Coalition, and Polska 2050. It is hard to assume that she would now attract large numbers of supporters. While it is possible to recruit members from Polska 2050, objectively speaking, this would not represent a significant success either. At the beginning of the year, the party had 800 members, effectively one representative for every three municipalities.
Equal Distance
Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz appears to hold somewhat stronger cards. Above all, Szymon Hołownia has remained within the party. The founder and former leader not only declined to leave with the defectors but also sharply criticized Paulina Hennig-Kloska. He stated that he felt deceived and that the split occurred solely because Centrum politicians harbor animosity toward Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz.
“They are moving into a space where they will be a parliamentary caucus. That is enough for them to negotiate with the prime minister and to play various political games. Still, it is certainly not enough to be anything more in 2027 than a filler on Civic Coalition’s electoral lists,”
Hołownia said in the Sejm.
Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz reportedly has a different strategy. For now, she is attempting to demonstrate assertiveness toward Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Law and Justice (PiS). First, she reproached the prime minister for failing to keep his word regarding the post of deputy prime minister. Later, she declared that she would not support a bill abolishing the two-term limit for local government officials.
“Time after the elections. Time after the deserters’ departure. Time for an honest reckoning before voters about where Polska 2050 stands, as a DISTINCT center. First up: the issue of the two-term limit in local government, we maintain our position: Polska 2050 IS IN FAVOR of keeping it,”
Paulina Hennig-Kloska wrote.
The proposal to abolish term limits is a priority for the Polish People’s Party as well as Civic Coalition. Both parties have numerous officials in local government positions. Accusations immediately surfaced that Pełczyńska-Nałęcz aims to break up the government. Politicians associated with her argue that this narrative is being spread by Centrum. Nevertheless, the party leader has declared she has no intention of “selling out.” For now, nothing indicates that the government is about to collapse.
A Burned-Out Project
But is the emergence of an additional caucus within the coalition truly good news for the prime minister?
“Donald Tusk certainly does not view this as a problem. He will now try to draw Centrum’s politicians toward himself. They are certainly susceptible to that. They do not have a well-developed strategy or a long-term plan. Elections are approaching, so they will undoubtedly start thinking about it,”
Professor Henryk Domański told Gazeta Polska.
Indeed, Joanna Mucha did not join Centrum and instead became one of the unaffiliated MPs. For Paulina Hennig-Kloska, Mucha could have complicated negotiations with Civic Coalition, since Tusk’s party reportedly has no interest in her return.
According to Professor Domański, however, Tusk’s calculations may not succeed. “Politicians are one thing; the electorate is another. It may turn out that attracting Centrum will not mean more votes. Of course, Polska 2050 voters will not vote for PiS, but they may become discouraged from participating in elections,” he said.
For Professor Kazimierz Kik of Jan Kochanowski University in Kielce, the weakening of Polska 2050 was predictable. “It is a seasonal party and a leader-centered party. It focused not on a program but on fulfilling the leader’s ambitions. Once he was gone, everything began to fall apart. The formation of this party did not result from social demand or a breakthrough moment, but from ambition,” Professor Kik told GP.
As he emphasizes, the party essentially failed to build lasting structures. That does not mean, however, that the prime minister has reason to celebrate.
“Tusk faces problems. We have an enormous state budget deficit, and it will increase further due to spending on armaments and security. These two factors will cool social policy in our country. This is already happening. The crisis in the healthcare system is manifesting itself in the closure of hospital wards and maternity units. There will be more such decisions. Additionally, the ambitions of party leaders will become an issue. Everyone will want to make a name for themselves, but there will be no real capacity to deliver,”
Professor Kik adds.
According to Henryk Domański, however, neither Centrum nor Polska 2050 holds particularly strong cards in this political game. “Chairwoman Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz is indeed emphasizing distinctiveness, but in reality, she has limited room for maneuver. The party had its moment three years ago, when it could dictate terms. Now it has little leverage. They cannot afford to leave the coalition. The leader might wish to, but she lacks the strength to do so,” Professor Domański concludes.