Both the largest opposition party, Law and Justice (PiS), and its supporters should not let social issues slide in the coming months. The rise in the polls of Confederation (Konfederacja)—even if inflated ahead of the presidential election—might suggest a significantly stronger focus on a free-market message. However, it would be wiser not to lose sight of those who have already moved past their fascination with the “minimal state.” All the more so because life in Donald Tusk’s Poland will increasingly afflict a growing number of Polish citizens.
The shocking events of recent days, related to the tragic death of Barbara Skrzypek—who fell into the hands of people linked to Roman Giertych—have pushed many more mundane but telling reports from the Poland ruled by the “December 13th coalition” into the background. Some of these reports concern socioeconomic matters whose long-term effects will sooner rather than later impact the political scene—especially given that support for the government keeps dropping.
They are robbing Poles on a massive scale
Image-wise, the government’s situation is not helped by Donald Tusk’s usual crisis response: hiding away for a few days in the hope that the storm will pass, thereby attempting—albeit dubiously—to salvage the rapidly crumbling public image of a responsible politician who strives for “reconciliation and healing” in the country. Incidentally, it’s becoming harder and harder to imagine Poland functioning as a normally governed state if both the government and the president come from the liberal-postcommunist camp.
Rafał Trzaskowski, who is preparing to be Tusk’s “rubber stamp,” would neither have the civic courage nor the slightest incentive to send a letter similar to the one President Andrzej Duda wrote to the Prime Minister following Barbara Skrzypek’s death. On March 19, the leader of the ruling coalition “reappeared” on the X platform, but only to attack the president. In response, he faced a barrage of public criticism. One clear conclusion emerges from Tusk’s reaction: the establishment of the Third Republic must plow ahead, treating its opponents ever more ruthlessly—even if this threatens disaster for the entire Polish state. If, by the May elections, society fails to break free of its illusions about these people, the darkest chapter of Polish history in decades will start to unfold before our eyes.
Let us return to our main thread. Data from the National Labor Inspectorate (Państwowa Inspekcja Pracy) shows that in 2024 there was a sharp increase in companies failing to pay wages. The rise is no small matter—compared to 2023, when the United Right still governed, wage arrears have doubled! We’re talking about 270 million zlotys. Moreover, among the dishonest employers is PKP Cargo, which, under the KO-Third Way-Left coalition government, ended up in the worst possible hands. It’s frightening to imagine what this bodes for the future of employees at Polish Post (Poczta Polska), which has been sentenced to a “deform” beneficial only to its competitors.
A massive increase in unpaid wages is not just a nightmare haunting the more clear-headed economists—everything suggests that ordinary people are also footing the bill for those who openly support the “December 13” coalition. After all, it was the wealthy and the super-rich who provided the biggest financial support to Civic Coalition (KO) before the 2023 elections, and they were the loudest critics of the PiS government, which, in their view, unnecessarily improved the lot of the less affluent. It’s hard to consider it a coincidence that the return to power of ultraliberals and postcommunists is bringing ever-worsening news for salaried workers.
Some responsibility for this also lies with the Razem party, whose leaders today like to present themselves as principled opponents of Donald Tusk’s antisocial policies but who voted in favor of a vote of confidence for his government. Yet it was obvious that the return of a clique nurtured on Leszek Balcerowicz’s doctrine would quickly lead to the resurgence of the vilest, most unjust practices upon which the Third Republic was founded. A neoliberal government means a return to extreme exploitation and meager wages, not just for “Poland B.”
Social discontent is growing
A large portion of society is already feeling this firsthand, as confirmed by a recent IBRiS survey: “nearly 60 percent of respondents say that in the past year their households have become poorer and life is harder for them.” I touched on this in a brief commentary for Codzienna on March 18 and will soon return to it in Gazeta Polska—especially since discontent is clearly on the rise among young people who not long ago hoped that under Tusk they would fare even better than under PiS. On the contrary, everything indicates that they, too, must collide hard with the reality of a lumpen-liberal government before they can grasp the political realities in Poland.
It is almost certain that the scale of popular discontent arising from these developments will only grow. After a few years of genuine social well-being—giving many Polish families hope for a better future—everything is collapsing like a house of cards, especially for those who, directly or indirectly, have faced collective layoffs in recent months. Surging prices, job insecurity, a real decline in wage growth—dire predictions about Poland under Tusk’s coterie are coming true almost to the letter. This government is fortunate that, toward the end of PiS rule, the post-pandemic and wartime inflation was reined in—otherwise, the crisis raging by the Vistula would have already toppled this administration.
The current cabinet has truly meager support—after more than a year, its ratings are definitively worse than those of the United Right government after several very difficult years under relentless media attacks. Polls for the Civic Coalition—if we can trust them—remain relatively solid. But the terrible shape of Third Way and the Left suggests that the government has no “polling reserves.” The so-called party “shock absorbers,” i.e., the nearly invisible Włodzimierz Czarzasty, the poll dwarf Szymon Hołownia, and the clearly ever more frustrated Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, are not in a position to offer Donald Tusk the slightest assistance when the ratings crisis intensifies. Then, the government will be left counting on the raw power of a compliant sector of the state apparatus—and on Brussels elites increasingly absorbed with their own concerns.
PiS cannot let this go
This is a situation in which PiS must not abandon social issues, even though the growing pressure from Sławomir Mentzen and Confederation might tempt it to do so. First: the most reliable poll is an actual election—and one that’s not rigged. Second: to paraphrase an old love-song cliché—polls never let you know for sure if things are really good, or maybe they’re already bad. Third: a sudden leap into a post-Korwin free-market narrative would cause confusion among PiS’s socially minded voters, at the expense of both sides in any hypothetical parting of ways.
It’s true that young Poles tend to favor more free-market solutions, and in times of heightened polarization, this becomes even more pronounced. Confederation—whose few representatives briefly held real power some years ago—can easily position themselves using the mythical “Mencen’s Five” points. If they actually governed, reality would quickly deflate many dreams and illusions, both among the politicians and their supporters. Yet PiS must not squander the trust of its socially oriented electorate—especially given that in the near future they will have even more reasons to despise the current government.
Is the biggest opposition party still capable of playing the pro-social card? It would be a shame to waste the loyalty of social voters earned over the years, even if today it might look like a somewhat dusty asset. It’s worth recalling that when increasingly well-organized protests by diverse professional groups got underway in 2013, it marked the beginning of the end for the PO-PSL coalition.
