The Washington Post has published an opinion piece in which experts from the prestigious Hudson Institute argue that Poland should become a permanent member of the G20. According to the authors, Warsaw is a key partner for the Donald Trump administration, while Poland’s economic success and growing military strength offer a model for a stagnating Western Europe.
The article, written by Hudson Institute analysts Peter Rough and Ulrich Speck, draws attention to the upcoming G20 summit in Miami in December, which will be hosted by President Donald Trump. As the authors note, the US administration wants to restore the forum’s original mission and, as part of this agenda, is promoting Poland, a country that is not yet a permanent member of the group but plays a role in Europe far greater than its size might suggest.
Economic success and a “model of growth”
The experts emphasise that Poland has cast off the constraints of its Soviet-dominated past to become one of the world’s most impressive success stories. Over the past two decades, the Polish economy has doubled in size, with its GDP now exceeding $1 trillion. According to forecasts, Poland is expected to become the world’s 20th-largest economy and the sixth-largest in the European Union by 2028. The article also highlights the contrast with Poland’s neighbours: while the European Commission expects the Polish economy to grow by 3.5 per cent this year, Germany’s economy is projected to expand by only 0.6 per cent.
Although the authors acknowledge challenges such as GDP per capita remaining below the EU average and the need for greater investment in the high-tech sector, they describe Poland as a “model of growth, free-market principles and democratic political institutions” in a Europe that is frequently criticised for its slow pace of innovation.
The article also cites remarks made in December by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said that Poland’s success “proves that focusing on the future” pays off and that the country should “take its rightful place in the G20.”
Three reasons Poland is crucial to Trump
According to The Washington Post, Donald Trump has correctly identified the problems affecting the G20, whose summits have often become little more than public-relations events focused on global health issues or poverty reduction, producing few tangible results. The current occupant of the White House wants the organisation to concentrate on “driving economic growth, unleashing innovation and strengthening partnerships that benefit American workers, businesses and allies.”
Poland is expected to help the US administration achieve these objectives in three principal ways.
First, while the major economies of Western Europe are struggling under the weight of “bloated welfare states and limited prospects for innovation,” Poland remains focused on economic growth and is being driven forward by a new generation of entrepreneurs.
Second, Poland has been described as a “defence star” and one of NATO’s most ambitious members, outperforming many long-standing allies. Warsaw already spends 4.7 per cent of its GDP on defence, with almost 56 per cent of that expenditure allocated to military equipment, the highest proportion in the entire Alliance. As the article notes, Poland has become “indispensable to the alliance” and is helping to deter Russia.
Third, permanent Polish membership of the G20 would finally provide representation for a region that has developed into an economic powerhouse. The authors refer, among other things, to the Three Seas Initiative summit declaration adopted in Dubrovnik in April, which welcomed the consolidation of transatlantic ties and Poland’s participation in the G20.
Taking South Africa’s place
The authors note that, as this year’s host, the United States has invited Poland to take a seat at the table that Washington denied to South Africa, an official member of the group whose economy, as they argue, has withered as a result of widespread corruption and state intervention.
In conclusion, the Hudson Institute analysts state that granting Poland permanent membership of the G20 would not be a gift to Warsaw, but rather a recognition of its hard-earned status among the world’s leading economies.
“Poland is the ally Trump needs to pull the G20 back from its worst instincts,”
the authors conclude in The Washington Post.