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    Crustal movements

    The quarrel on our border with Belarus is just a manifestation of the so-called powerful ‘tectonic movements’ in world geopolitics.

    The first big ‘seismic fault’ was the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the USSR. From the former empire, Moscow managed to gouge out the Russian Federation, which has tried to keep some of the countries conquered over the last 300 years dependent. This was true as far as the Asian republics, Moldova, Georgia, the peoples of the Caucasus, and in Eastern Europe, Belarus and Ukraine were concerned. After this, as Vladimir Putin called it, the geopolitical catastrophe of the early 1990s, another process of disintegration of the empire began. It has been in progress since the middle of the first decade of this century and its most important element was the separation of Ukraine. This process, despite Russia’s aggression, continues and will continue, although sometimes crucial events can stop such phenomena. The detachment of Ukraine was followed by a revolt in Belarus. Belarus has just chosen this way and it is not likely to be an easy one.


    But Russia also has problems in the south and east. No one needs convincing about the growing role of China. Already Siberia is becoming more and more Chinese territory. The question is whether it will one day become China. Asian republics are also going through a process of separation from Russia. This is supported by China and Turkey. Turkey, seeking to rebuild its former empire, is increasingly active in the Caucasus. You can also see Russia’s interest in the situation in Ukraine. 


    The Kremlin hopes to push Turkey and China into a permanent conflict with the West and, as the third, to preserve its imperialism and influence in the post-Soviet areas. Rising tensions between China and the US give the rulers in Moscow high hopes for this.


    The problem is that many issues between China and the US, and between Turkey and our most important ally, can be settled through negotiations and agreements. The degree of economic dependence of these countries is such that a permanent conflict is not worth it for them in the long run. The most important area of contention between Beijing and Washington is the Taiwan issue. But could the conflict over this state lead to a bigger brawl? Russia can only pray for that. Personally, I have little faith in that. And if not, Moscow already has a big problem. Having lost Ukraine, which undermines its imperialism, sooner or later it will have to get heavily involved in Belarus. For all its imperialism, what remains is its aggressive policy and its huge number of nuclear warheads.


    The prognosis for Moscow is getting worse. The economy of Putin’s country hardly stands a chance of being among the world leaders, and the Russians themselves are also slowly becoming discouraged with the current policy. There is no hope for revolution, but the discouragement of the public does not make it any easier to engage in the world power game. How can they reverse it? There is only one idea in the minds of those ruling the Kremlin: to take back Ukraine. This is to be followed by the rebuilding of the empire. The rest of the events are just window dressing.


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