As Poland gears up for its upcoming general election on October 15, the latest opinion polls indicate that the ruling United Right coalition remains a formidable force, despite facing challenges in securing a parliamentary majority.
According to a recent survey conducted by the respected United Surveys pollster, the United Right coalition would emerge as the front-runner, capturing 35.3 percent of the vote if an election were held today. While their lead is apparent, the coalition is expected to fall short of achieving an outright parliamentary majority.
In the second place, the centrist Civic Coalition stands at 27.5 percent, poised to be a strong contender in the upcoming election. The far-right Confederation follows in third place with 10.6 percent support, while the newly formed Third Way coalition, comprising Poland 2050 and the Polish People’s Party (PSL), secures 10.2 percent of the vote. The Left coalition rounds out the top five with 9.4 percent support.
Despite these clear standings, it’s essential to note that other smaller parties and groupings are projected to fall below the 5-percent parliamentary threshold, indicating the concentration of support among these top contenders.
The projected distribution of seats in the Sejm, the lower house of the Polish parliament, based on these polling results is as follows: the United Right would secure 193 seats, the Civic Coalition would obtain 145, Confederation 44, the Third Way 41, the Left 36, and one seat would be allocated to the German minority. With none of the leading parties able to secure an outright majority, Poland’s political landscape appears poised for a complex and potentially contentious election.
The poll also provided insight into voter engagement, with an election turnout projected to stand at 61.7 percent. This relatively high turnout suggests that Polish citizens are actively participating in the democratic process and taking a keen interest in shaping their country’s future.
United Surveys conducted this survey from September 1 to September 3, polling a representative group of 1,000 adult Poles. While these results provide a snapshot of the political landscape at this moment, they should be considered as one piece of a dynamic and evolving electoral puzzle.