Fuel Prices in Poland Set to Rise Again, Analysts Warn

    Motorists in Poland should brace for another round of fuel price increases next week, with gasoline and diesel expected to rise by PLN 0.05 to 0.10 groszy per liter, according to analysts from Refleks. Despite the upcoming hikes, fuel remains cheaper than a year ago, with gasoline prices down by 5-7% and diesel by 15%.

    Refleks analysts noted that this past week saw “sudden jumps” in fuel prices at most stations, resulting in an average weekly change of PLN 0.07-0.08 groszy per liter for both gasoline and diesel.

    The current average prices at stations are as follows: unleaded 95 – PLN 6.32/liter (+PLN 0.08 a week), unleaded 98 – PLN 6.86/liter (+PLN 0.07 a week), diesel – PLN 6.49/liter (+PLN 0.08 a week), and autogas – PLN 2.89/liter (+ LN 0.01 a week). “The last time we encountered such significant increases was in the first half of November last year, followed by nine weeks of price reductions,” the experts emphasized.

    Analysts believe that these increases might not be the end. They pointed out that the scale of price changes in the wholesale market, which forms the basis for retail price adjustments, has “not been fully reflected at the pump yet.”

    “Additionally, since wholesale prices will likely rise next week, we expect further increases of PLN 0.05 to 0.10 per liter for gasoline and diesel. Autogas prices are expected to rise less, with an anticipated increase of PLN 0.03-0.05 per liter,” they informed.

    Despite the observed and anticipated retail price hikes, the refueling cost remains lower than a year ago. “Gasoline is 5-7% cheaper, diesel 15% cheaper, and autogas 10% cheaper than last year,” the Refleks experts calculated.

    On Friday, Brent crude oil futures for March were trading around USD 82 per barrel. The main reason for the price increase is the ongoing high-risk situation in the Red Sea. Despite the presence of U.S. and British warships in the area and a missile attack on Houthi, Houthi attacks on commercial shipping continue, fueling supply-side concerns.

    Refleks reported that U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 9.2 million barrels over the week to 420.7 million barrels, now 5% below the five-year average for this time of year. Gasoline reserves increased by 4.9 million barrels, while distillate stocks decreased by 1.4 million barrels, 4% below the five-year average for this period.

    As the situation continues to develop, motorists and industry watchers alike will be closely monitoring the impact of these global events on local fuel prices.

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