There’s no exact date—only the certainty that sometime in the second half‑year the system will hit a wall and run out of money for treatment, multiple insiders tell Gazeta Polska Codziennie. Why? This year’s budget is still paying off last year’s record‑high liabilities. With the National Health Fund (NFZ) quietly rewriting its financial plan outside parliamentary scrutiny, an 8 billion‑złoty pay rise for health‑care staff still hasn’t been financed, and—despite a statutory requirement—the Medical Fund remains unfunded.
A Waiting‑Room Queue That Keeps Growing
“We’re carrying a record load of arrears from 2024—24‑times higher than a year earlier. The NFZ is clearing those debts with this year’s money,” explains Wojciech Wiśniewski of the Polish Federation of Entrepreneurs, a health‑market analyst and member of the Health Ministry’s tripartite team.
That, he says, means the second half of 2025 will replay last year’s crisis, when hospitals stopped receiving payment for services already delivered and began postponing surgeries and specialist appointments.
“It’s like eating the week’s groceries by Tuesday. The fridge will be empty the rest of the week,”
Wiśniewski adds.
NFZ Rewrites Its Budget—Off the Books
Mounting cost pressure prompted the NFZ to amend its 2025 financial plan—even though the Finance Minister still hasn’t signed off on it. By law, the Fund should be operating under a provisional budget in such circumstances.
Weeks ago NFZ management insisted no changes were possible under a provisional regime; now, Health Ministry officials tell the tripartite team the Fund can legally amend the plan after all.
In an internal memo obtained by Codzienna, deputy minister Jerzy Szafranowicz writes that Articles 118(3) and 121 of the Health Services Act “do not apply” to this revision, meaning the Fund could boost its state subsidy without the full procedure that requires the Sejm’s health and public finance committees to give an opinion.
Five changes were pushed through, all without parliamentary vetting:
Category | Cut / Increase |
---|---|
Specialist outpatient care | − 193.8 m zł |
Hospital treatment | − 434.6 m zł |
Drug reimbursement | − 3.2 m zł |
Settlement of past‑years’ services (incl. 2024) | + 631.5 m zł |
“So No One Notices What’s Really Happening”
“This off the record tinkering shows how dire NFZ finances are—and how the government applies the ‘Tusk doctrine’: interpret the law the way we see fit,” says opposition MP Anna Kwiecień (PiS) from the Sejm health committee. The aim, she argues, is to keep MPs—and the public—from asking hard questions.
Former health minister Katarzyna Sójka (PiS) points out that the legally mandated 4 billion zł transfer to the Medical Fund (set up in 2020) never happened. Instead, that money went straight to the NFZ—funds originally earmarked for oncology projects scrapped last year by Health Minister Izabela Leszczyna.
A parliamentary inspection found the cash trail led directly from the state budget to the NFZ, bypassing the Medical Fund entirely. “Will another law be broken if the Fund still isn’t topped up by year end?” Sójka asks. The finance ministry has until 31 December, but where will it find 4 billion that’s already been spent?
Hospitals Brace for Déjà Vu
Hospital directors, speaking off the record, say they’re holding their tongues while the NFZ still pays—albeit with account balances sometimes down to mere hundreds of thousands of złoty. “We’re already getting ready for a repeat of last year. The question isn’t if, but when the money stops,” one chief executive says.
Budget Forecasts or Fiscal Fiction?
Yesterday the cabinet was due to debate Poland’s macro economic outlook—the foundation for the NFZ’s multi year budget. The 2026 plan must reach parliamentary committees by July. “How can we draw up next year’s plan when this year’s hasn’t even cleared the finance ministry?” Wiśniewski asks. “What will be real assumptions and what will be pure fiction as fresh unknowns keep piling up in 2025?”
One thing appears certain: unless fresh money is found, Poland’s health care fridge may again be empty before the year is out.