A state of high alert is necessary today, in light of these revolutionary geopolitical changes where all the vectors of politics are turning around and practically going crazy. This is an urgent need. It is no longer about political and geopolitical interests but rather about the existential interests of the Polish state – says Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, former Vice-President of the European Parliament, in an interview with Gazeta Polska Codziennie.
Jacek Liziniewicz: On TV Republika, you said that Poland should prepare for war within the next three to four years. What would that scenario look like?
Jacek Saryusz-Wolski: First of all, I stress that this is the worst possible scenario, and we must do everything to prevent it from happening. The best way to do this is to be ready for war. In the situation that is developing very dynamically, we can be sure that Western Europe will not help us in our hour of need. Firstly, because there will be no political will, and secondly, because they do not have the means. Meanwhile, the United States might be able to help us, depending on how things develop and the policies of the administration in Washington. That is the most probable course of events so far. For the moment, the President of Ukraine says he will not accept any Russian–American agreement. But if we assume there is a deal between the United States and Russia, it would give all sides some breathing room. Russia could rearm, Ukraine could acquire more arms, and Poland would have time for a second leap forward. However, if no agreement is reached, the scenario would be a continuation of the current situation—but in worse parameters, without American assistance. Regardless of the loud promises, repeatedly made like a mantra—most recently in Paris—by Western Europeans that they stand by Ukraine and will continue to help, etc., Europe is simply not able, in military terms, to provide everything Ukraine needs, especially if it has to fill the gap left by U.S. support. Therefore, both scenarios move us closer to that worst possibility. It looks bad. And, what’s more, I would say it looks threatening.
What conclusions should our government and politicians draw from this?
Poland should prepare for the worst-case scenario, so that it can either avoid it or face it. Fulfilling many conditions is required. Two, however, are key. The first is a leap in defense spending—at least on the scale we had when Jarosław Kaczyński was responsible for security, and the Homeland Defense Act was adopted. That second leap would entail spending around 7.5% of GDP on the army and carrying out all necessary changes in our military potential. This requires the government’s willingness. Given that so far, despite loud declarations of arms spending and signing on to PiS’s achievements, we are seeing a bit of sabotage, this is uncertain. The optimal scenario would be a change of government to one clearly supportive of defense. Since we cannot count on a government change, we should pin our hopes on a pro-American successor to President Duda. A natural candidate would be Karol Nawrocki, so that a thread of understanding and trust between Washington and Warsaw continues. These two conditions are very difficult and uncertain but necessary. A high alert level is essential today, with these revolutionary geopolitical changes. It is no longer about political or geopolitical interests, but about the very existence of the Polish state.
Donald Trump and his administration are throwing a bucket of cold water on Western European politicians. For decades, the Brussels elite have been very pleased with themselves. The people who recently laughed when Trump addressed the UN are now in tears after hearing J.D. Vance’s speech…
He was not a random figure. German diplomat Christoph Heusgen, as Merkel’s right-hand man, was behind the disastrous pro-Russian policy and the Nord Stream concepts. He is the main strategist, hence the clash and the outburst of tears, which is a sign of powerlessness. Hopefully, it is an admission of guilt, although the reactions of Brussels and Berlin show that they might be ready to take offense at the USA and cozy up to China. That would be a fatal move. Nevertheless, there are some anonymous voices equating the USA with Russia and China as Europe’s enemies. The same people speculate about seeking peace guarantees from China. Taking such a course would be a dangerous provocation toward the USA. The only solution for Europe is solidarity with the USA in its confrontation with China. This is crucial if Europe wants to continue counting on American support. It is not just about aid to Ukraine, but also about the very core of our security umbrella – the deterrent effect of the U.S. nuclear arsenal.
Europe uses grand words and claims responsibility for its own security. This has been repeated for years, and still very little has changed in this regard. Do you think there is a chance it will be different this time?
It is empty rhetoric, not a guess but a fact. Even in the Libyan operation, the Europeans proved impotent and had to rely on American help. Today, the hard data on manpower, the number of aircraft and tanks, and the efficiency of ammunition production show that Europe is incapable of making a serious war effort. Shifting production to armaments requires a revolution in financing, and they are not ready for that. In other words, it is not only a lack of political will but also a physical incapacity in terms of military potential. That is a certainty on which Russia can capitalize. In a situation—hopefully it does not happen, but we have to consider it—where America withdraws from engagement on the Ukrainian front, we would be in a deep impasse.
Read the full interview with Jacek Saryusz-Wolski in today’s edition of Gazeta Polska Codziennie!
